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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (11838)	3/15/2001 7:43:50 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Japan has followed our NASD down since september, back in 98 when fed interviened it did put a bottom in Japan. I believe the fed will do the same in 2001 and will help place a bottom in the equity markets. I am not of the belief we have to rally to 4000, but that we will stay range bound from 1800-3100 until next fall. I have a lot of faith in Greenspan and I think is funny how so many short term investors think we can't have a bump in the road in our economy! I do not think we are heading into a recession, but that we are experiencing a slow down. I expected this last March when I went short the NASD, and I now feel this corrective bear market is coming to an end!! Comments are apprciated and I will ask anyone who reads this post to think back to 87-92, 94, 98 .

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (11838)	3/15/2001 10:11:04 AM
From: velociraptor_	Respond to of 37746

Twp years out is a long time Greenlaw and many things could change. That's why trade and not invest. I think investing over the next 2 years is going to be a big challenge. I base my opinions on what I see in the charts, and right now, I think the Naz will find a bottom somewhere near 1500 or so, at which point we should get a counter trend rally that may last a month or two, but I doubt we get anywhere near 3500 or even 3000, and perhaps not even 2500. Actually, if 1500 comes to realization, then 2000 would be a good target as that is 30% up from that bottom. Severe recession? Yes...we have yet to see the effects of this mania collapse in full and it will take some time to run it's course. The US is pretty strong and will survive just fine, but there will be some hard times, in my opinion. You just cannot ignore the observation that an economy goes from full steam to zero growth in a matter of months, and could well retract in growth before it's done. Growth hit a brick wall and for this to happen there is something major going on. Ultimately, the Nazdaq could very well go to below 1000. Though this is extreme, it is not completely unlikely. The DOW could see 6000-7000 on the extreme side. Somewhere in the 8000's has a good chance right now. These are my current thoughts and of course are always subject to change as the technical patterns unfold.