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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (13098)	3/15/2001 1:57:27 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

"Selling short at tops of Counter-Trend Rallies" requires identifying where those tops are. So far the record is not promising on that score.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (13098)	3/15/2001 3:48:06 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Pete, I agree with your observation that the analogous play to a bull market gift horse is the bear market short on a CTR top. That is actually how I was going to play it myself. One criticism I do have for Bob is that he downplays the usefulness of short positions as an investing strategy. In the past, he has equated short sellers to amateur traders which I thought was a silly statement. Bob's lack of a viable shorting strategy is a huge hole in his methods and one that could have paid off big time.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (13098)	3/16/2001 8:48:35 PM
From: BigShoulders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Re: throwing money in long at gifthorse pullback lows (ie. going with the overall long-term bull trend of the market) would equate to selling short at tops of Counter-Trend Rallies I think Brinker doesn't recommend short selling because of the greater risk and potential for unlimited losses. A wrong call on a short could be more disastrous than the CTR 2. Regarding shorts, I vaguely remember him discussing the Ursa fund as a way to make money in a down market(I forget which fund family it's in but I believe its short the S&P). Do you remember any comments on this? Best of luck to us all (we need it)

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (13098)	3/17/2001 2:06:33 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Pete, re<<<<I'm starting to hear people saying we are starting to experiencing "capitulation", yet advisor sentiment continues to remain just above 60% bullish. This makes me think MOABO will be later rather than sooner. Given the damage so far, the disappointing magnitude of the few bounces we have had, and today's announced 7% cutback in OPEC crude production; I'm starting to think MOABO could be at an even lower area than NAZ 1400-1500>>> I don't know, this advisor sentiment is beginning to look like the Wall Street Week permabulls. Usually the technicians in the survey have mostly responded like trailing indicators so I don't know what's going on. I can understand why Bob has downplayed it recently. I think NASDAQ 1500 area is a reasonable low given moderating inflation and the Fed in easing mode. Tech earnings should start stabilizing within a year or so shouldn't they? When everyone on CNBC shuts up about capitulation and bear market rallies maybe that will be time to mortgage the house and invest<g> Marc