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To: Roebear who wrote (88716)3/16/2001 10:15:10 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
I agree with BigBull that OPEC has probably screwed themselves here keeping prices too high for too long. There will be more cheating now than in the past. 1) There is probably more excess capacity than there was a year ago. 2) Mexico, Norway and Russia will try to make up for any lost OPEC production 3) It's easier to cheat when the price is going down from relatively high prices.

Oil and gas fundamentals should remain pretty strong, but I think at best oil stocks can move sideways until the economic cloud is lifted. Natural gas will obviously remain stronger than oil, but I'm not sure the NG stocks can rally if crude breaks below 25. No position yet long or short, but shorting looks like easy money if the OSX closes below 119.

OSX chart kind of looks like a broadening top. Bearish once it breaks support. Getting very close.

207.61.23.98

XOI near a short term breaking pt as well:

207.61.23.98



To: Roebear who wrote (88716)3/16/2001 12:46:14 PM
From: BigBull  Respond to of 95453
 
Roebear, re your OPEC post. It appears that OPEC will have to do 2 cuts to get to their original cut of 1.5. Imo, not a good sign for OPEC discipline. Question is, will 1.5 be enough to counter falling demand?

BTW Australia is now in recession.