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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Konrad who wrote (49287)	3/16/2001 10:36:07 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Mark, from the reports I've been getting, your story was not unusual. This past week has resulted in a high number of margin calls, liquidations and other capitulation. And unfortunately, it included those who played Year 2000 perfectly and held out all the way to the end of January before buying. It included those who have been investing long-term since the late 90's. It included those heavily into mutual funds, who didn't even consider themselves serious investors, let alone traders. But the most significant thing, in my opinion, is that capitulation has most certainly been occurring. The boiling point has just been at different temperatures for different personalities. People are giving up on techs, regretting ever playing them, and promising never to do so again. Those who have equity left after being squeezed by brokerages, are rotating into "safer" Dow and other 3 letter stocks. Unfortunately, though the Dow has been relatively stable, it may be on the verge of some rather choppy waters ahead. If 2nd quarter earnings coming out next month reflect the sudden slowdown the techs have clearly foreshadowed, the broader market could see similar sharp declines with each earnings report that hits the news. And the Dow has been in a trading range for several years. So if it were to break support on poor earnings, the drop could be devastating. Well, now that I've poured lighter fluid on the bon fire. . .what's next? Don't shoot, but in my opinion, the SAFEST place to be over the next 6 months may well be in the very same names that those folks in line at your brokerage were selling! New positions in High Quality, High Growth and Tech Stocks With Increasing Earnings That Have Bottomed Out may very well be the best plays of the next 4 months or so. And what's worse, the very stocks that so many are currently running to for safety may be in big trouble come April earnings. So I would say to every bull. . . .before making any critical changes to your strategies, I think it best to consider what might lie ahead, rather than only staring at what has happened. . . .and seek wise counsel before reacting to what you think you understand. Rande Is

To: Mark Konrad who wrote (49287)	3/17/2001 12:46:42 AM
From: KevinThompson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Interesting story Mark. It's amazing that some investors would wait until a day like today to do something about their holdings. But somehow, it really doesn't seem surprising at all. The Nazdaq closed at another new low today. Why do some investors sell on new lows, and then buy on new highs? The only reason to justify selling your portfolio on a down day like today is if it is absolutely necessary to have the assets in hand. Not good planning, and certainly not a very wise investment strategy. KevinT