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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Konrad who wrote (49314)	3/17/2001 7:14:18 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

I think we can all agree with that. It's only the short term fear (evidenced by recent falls) which keeps people from buying. Want to make sure all the worse is behind us. You're right, we may have had a 4 months Crash of 1929 since October. Very few tech stocks are not down 70% since then and few internet stocks down less than 90% or more. SCNT is now down 98% from its high and has plenty of cash, much more than its market cap. They've laid off a third of their staff and still get no respect. Amazing how low the stock prices have fallen and how extreme the fear and loathing have gotten. I have given up calling bottoms. Whenever I give up though the market usually rallies hard. If we don't see a rally before the Fed meeting I'll be scratching my head big-time. Hard to believe there's any good news priced in anymore. We're in for some tough sledding in this economy but the Fed can lower a lot, the government has a huge surplus and the worst problem of all seems to be the sudden fear, doubt and pessimism itself. People stop purchasing when they're too pessimistic. The hangover is due to the "drunken" assumption that internet companies would make huge profits. Duh. The truth is some of them will make good profits eventually but many of them will just go belly-up. And already have. We're paying for that now big-time and will be for awhile. But at least we've all woken up in the real world again. Another factor is the election. Sorry Republicans but Bush just hadn't shown he's got what it takes to lead. What I was telling everyone during the election. He's a front-man with a ton of money behind him not a true visionary leader. And not only didn't he win the popular vote but when you add Nader (liberal) votes to Gore's Bush loses by quite a lot. So figure 60%+ unhappy with Bush these days. Also Cheney, whom is extremely capable, might fall over dead anytime. The latest George magazine rates Greenspan, Cheney, Powell and Bush as the most powerful men in DC in that order. Cheney is understood to be the "real president" and Powell the one really controlling foreign policy. Wierd that Bush has only been out of the US three times in his life. The word is already out he's a one-term president, though that could certainly change if he "grows into" the job. But that's going to take a ton of homework. So all that causes anxiety. We're semi-leaderless. And this tax cut (which is all Bush seems to care about) is controversial, especially as it takes so long to kick in and assumes more and more government surpluses (which is pure BS considering this recession). The GOP ought to compromise and lower surplus estimates because who needs more government debt in the future? despite all this troubling news however, if anyone tells you techs are dead, the economy is going to collapse and the internet is finished as a money-maker, take that with a big grain of salt. Just a 6-12 month recession and hangover we're going through now. Everything will stabilize fairly soon. Like you said if you buy now and hold through this gloom someday you'll be bragging you did so. Just like you should have been buying S+L stocks after that debacle became public knowledge. No stock is popular when it's down. But that's the only time it's really cheap and you can multiply your money. Catch 22 situation. When the market's way up everyone's buying on margin like crazy. When it's in the dumps they say cash is king and they sell like crazy. Actually just the opposite should be true, but isn't. Just human nature. We are indeed lemmings. The only reason I've hung in there short-term is I thought "Don't Fight The Fed". Hopefully the Fed will do the right thing this Tuesday because boy do we longs need it.