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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: superfiggpart2 who wrote (68564)	3/18/2001 1:15:19 AM
From: Lazarus	Respond to of 122087

exactly, i am watching the post dry up on message boards the publishers of newsletters dry up of course, the question is: for how long all in all though, --- you've made an astute observation - thinks me

To: superfiggpart2 who wrote (68564)	3/18/2001 1:32:42 AM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 122087

Unlike a bubble, which is always short-lived, a low, slow period lasts for years. The memory of greed's pain, like love's, is long.

To: superfiggpart2 who wrote (68564)	3/18/2001 7:01:58 AM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 122087

Hi superfiggpart2, the problem is .... The "stock tips from taxi-cab drivers and waiters" started over 2 years ago. The "avoid the market" advice has just started. Think of the bear market/down turn in the business cycle as as 3 act play. Act 1: The stock market bubble bursts - I think we can safely say that this occurred from March 2000 - May 2000. Act 2: Denial - Companies start to issue issue earnings warnings, economic data suggests a slowdown, but its still business as usual. - We are either near the end of this stage or at the beginning of Act 3. Act 3: Capitulation - Everyone knows things are gonna be bad, the only question remains is how long it will last. The fact that losing money every quarter has meant nothing to so many businesses (like AMZN) has bothered me for 2 years. Obviously these guys don't measure their success by profitability ! But let me tell you - when they have to look someone in the eyes and tell them they no longer have a job - only then are they admitting defeat. Layoffs only really started in November. So we have a ways to go. The markets typically recover before the layoffs end -- when things are bleakest. Also - volume is still strong. This suggests to me that a lot of people still have a lot of money in the stock market. IMO, we need volume to drop off as a sign that the selling is winding down yet the public no way no how wants anything to do with the stock market. Even though stocks are "screaming bargains". Take a look at OTCBB share and dollar volume for the past 12 - 24 months, as an example of what the NASDAQ needs to do. The OTCBB is great to look at because it magnifies the "greed/fear" psychology. The OTCBB is basically dead. At best, a mere $25M changes hands daily. And most of that money changes hands on about 20 out of a few thousand stocks. I would like to see NASDAQ volume drop off to the 1B share/day range as a sign that the last of the bag holders finally need their money yet the public is still too gun shy to start buying stocks again. Just my thoughts, Chris