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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (72567)	3/18/2001 11:41:02 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>so many numbers battered around the past couple of weeks it makes your head spin: undervalued, overavalued, high pc ratio - low and so on.>>>> SO, i think the rotational market is trying to keep everybody off guard, is the nas the market? is the dow the market? is the sNp the market?, is the nyse the market? The Dow has been the psychological leadership for a long time, and rightly so, these are the tried and true blue chip companies, not otc stuff pushed up by momentum investors that swing wildly from overvalued to undervalued. The Dow has been in a consolidation pattern for two years, consolidation patterns can be continuation or reversal, some may consider that the "diamond" or triangle has come to an end. even as the nasdaq was taking it's lumps in 4q, there was tremendous amount of bullish sentiment, the nyse breadth was flying, mdy was hot, banks, brokers, oil service, insurance, drugs, etc etc, this is just an inventory correction, the 2nd half will come back. as this triangle was nearing an end into the fed meeting only a month & half ago, there were 62% bulls in the II survey, 9 bulls on WSW elves stand, which it has been for months now - 8-9 for almost a year, at the fed meeting the ratio of bull to bear funds in rydex was at the tops in march, july and late august. at the resolution of a consolidation pattern, the crowd should be leaning in the opposite, of the way it should break, the crowd was leaning heavily on the bull side, even in the face of a trashed out nasdaq. i think the bear is still just a baby.