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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (72570)	3/18/2001 12:06:26 PM
From: StockOperator	Respond to of 99985

bb, I know I have been saying much of some same things on SA thread now for months. Speaking only on a technical basis the damage has been huge. Just scratch the surface and you will find companies like LU trading in the single digits; JDSU and GTW this week could very likely take out their historical lows! Now add to the mix a DOW that has just begun to break; biotech's beginning to buckle under the pressure; the semis which are still positive but could begin to roll over prior to months end and you have a pretty nasty combination. As far as market psychology goes I believe the glue that's keeping things together here are those semis. We have been told now for months that they will lead us out of this mess. If and when they fall I think it will make believers out of the money mgrs that believe this is a bottom. Like I said I believe we'll get our answer to that soon enough.

To: bobby beara who wrote (72570)	3/18/2001 12:09:53 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"is the nas the market? is the dow the market? is the sNp the market?, is the nyse the market?" That a year ago people were beginning to consider the Nasdaq to be the market was another little symptom of the larger psychosis. The Nasdaq's fabulous recent accomplishment of out-downing the Dow and the Nikkei says less about the extremity of the bear market than about the Nasdaq's true nature: It's arguably closer to being an overblown sector than a broad reflection of THE MARKET. For the same reason, however, it's reasonable to doubt any assumption that the Nasdaq will need as much time to recover as the true majors have needed after superficially comparable crashes. The Nasdaq could take even longer (or never really come back), or it could snap back (to a growth track if not to March madness highs) with surprising speed.