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To: chic_hearne who wrote (82147)	3/18/2001 5:22:37 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

jesus man! that is a huge post.. have a beer, watch some hoops.... pray Dayne doesn't get cut -g-

To: chic_hearne who wrote (82147)	3/18/2001 5:25:35 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<For real estate to deflate, the first thing that will have to happen is the supply/demand situation will have to implode. On the supply side, TL & EV should start to take out those living above their means soon.>> Here's an interesting tidbit from Friday's WSJ: interactive.wsj.com March 16, 2001 Mortgage Delinquencies Rise, Signaling Slowdown's Spread Dow Jones Newswires WASHINGTON -- In another sign that the slowing economy is becoming troublesome for individual U.S. households, the percentage of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2000, hitting its highest level since 1992. Mortgage delinquencies surged by a half percentage point in the final three months of last year, with 4.54% of all loans now delinquent by at least 30 days, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said. The MBA attributed the upswing in late mortgage payments to the slow 1.1% economic growth rate seen in the fourth quarter, as well as rising energy prices that hurt homeowners' disposable income. The fourth-quarter delinquency level was up from 4.04% in the third quarter and was the highest since the 4.60% seen in the third quarter of 1992, the MBA said. By loan type, delinquencies were up across the board as well. Late payments on conventional mortgages rose almost a third of a percentage point to 2.85%, while the rate for Veterans Administration loans was up about two-thirds of a percentage point to 7.48%. The biggest rise was seen in Federal Housing Administration mortgages, which saw their delinquency rate rise by almost 1.5 percentage points to 10.46%. While delinquencies rose, the percentage of loans actually going into foreclosure slipped slightly in the fourth quarter, a reflection of relatively low numbers of delinquencies in the first three quarters of 2000. The percentage of loans during the fourth quarter on which foreclosure had been started dropped to 0.29% of all loans from 0.31% in the previous quarter, the MBA said. I think we'll see the foreclosure rate turn up in Q1, then continue to increase throughout the year, BWTFDIK?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (82147)	3/18/2001 5:29:51 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

You left out the "sell to whom?" factor. When the housing market is weak, banks don't foreclose because there is no market. Banks don't want to own houses.

To: chic_hearne who wrote (82147)	3/18/2001 7:05:11 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Chic: With respect to the developing problems for the banksters, we should also add in the folk who can't make the payments (job loss) and can't sell the house for enough to cover the mortgage outstanding, so they just take a hike and leave the keys in the mailbox. It is happening already, albeit on a small scale. And as most on this thread know, given the bank's propensity to securitize and dump the mortgages as soon as possible, guess who is bound to end up holding a big bunch of these difficult situations. (g) Best, Earlie

To: chic_hearne who wrote (82147)	3/18/2001 11:45:23 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<As rates go down, you can afford more "house". > When housing prices collapse the sellers won't be able to afford a house... see my local anecdote, these people don't give a crap about mortgage rates. The income has dried up making rates moot. DAK

To: chic_hearne who wrote (82147)	3/20/2001 1:55:03 PM
From: Andrew G.	Respond to of 436258

chic_hearne : 'just want to say thanks to you and others for commenting on real estate as it is a key component of our economy and often neglected by the media as an indicator of consumer level of confidence and spending capacity. The RE industry is keenly aware of economic conditions and, for whatever impact they may have on the media, do not want to paint a picture of instability. Perceptions shape prices and suppy/demand, be it stocks or RE. We have not seen an across the board drop in RE value in quite sometime, but should it happen, it is likely to come with some momentum and escalation. Developers may need to scale back to keep dropping prices in check. That may be the first clue of a change in market conditions.