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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chmang who wrote (40611)	3/20/2001 9:46:01 AM
From: BDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

My post was made in the context of the discussion about retirement planning and was not meant as an argument against investing in the market in retirement. All the retirement calculators I have seen call for you to enter one number for return on investments and one number for inflation over the period of time you are trying plan for. Not only are you supposed to be able to predict the future but you must assume the future will be static. The table shows that a stretch of below average returns and above average inflation can happen and can wipe out what appeared to be a reasonable plan. I don't think it is an argument against investing in the market but it is an argument for budgeting in a large margin of safety. Many people in the market today were not managing their own investments even ten years ago and they may plug in numbers that reflect the last tens years' results (high returns, low inflation). There are a lot of homeowners who probably think double digit mortgage interest rates for extended periods of time are simply an impossibility. When I first opened my IRA money market funds were paying 14% compounded. Just a word of caution.