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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BDR who wrote (40620)	3/20/2001 11:09:07 AM
From: chmang	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Totally agree with your words of caution and the need to have have a much broader perspective than the last 10 years. I remember in the early 80's in Europe having seen CD yields of 11% , inflation 8-9 % so you could end eventually with a negative real yield after taxes. When we look at the historical returns of bonds and shares, we should always translate them in real money yields (net of inflation) before drawing any conclusion for the next decades. I don't know about your retirement calculators as they are specific for U.S., but it seems weird to ask people to predict inflation. I personally leave inflation aside in my planning. I assume that state bond yields are 2.5 % net of inflation and I try to estimate what kind of annual premium my shares will give me over bonds on a long period. Charles

To: BDR who wrote (40620)	3/22/2001 2:02:40 AM
From: BDR	Respond to of 54805

Interesting article in today's WSJ, editorial page, entitled "Easy Come, Easy Go" by Holman Jenkins about how the press in hyping the bursting of the bubble. Also available online: interactive.wsj.com I think I can excerpt a paragraph without getting in trouble with the WSJ- "Look at the charts again. Investors are still sitting on a mountain of gains, even after the reverses of the past year. People who are smart enough to know when they're speculating in a bubble are also smart enough to understand that realistically priced stocks are still a good long-run bet even allowing for such episodes as we've seen in the past two years." He makes me feel so much better about myself.(g)