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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (34190)	3/20/2001 3:37:47 PM
From: Venkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I forgot I had a bid for nvtl at 4 7/8...well guess what I own it....

To: stockman_scott who wrote (34190)	3/20/2001 5:15:28 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

got what I expected from inept Fed now the bond market will rally further and the Fed will continue to be BEHIND the curve this is because the Fed is using broken methods and models faulty tenet #1: growth begets inflation when the economy grew faster than 4%, the Fed got scared they kept raising rates in late 1999, right thru the Y2K turn they believe the incorrect notion that fast growth will lead to outofcontrol price increases throughout the economy the truth in my opinion is the opposite: the faster the growth, the lower the inflation in the late 1970's we had slow/no growth, higher inflation as growth rose in the 1980's, inflation wound down toward 2-3% faulty tenet #2: too much employment breeds inflation this absurd Phillips Curve argument has no basis in history when employment went under 4.5% last year, the Fed got scared they believe that widespread prosperity creates excess demand for goods/services, thus fostering inflation the truth in my opinion is the opposite: putting money in the hands of people who earn it is fiscally sound locally, and fiscally sound globally whereas printing money for these same people to be receiving layoff insurance is fiscally unsound and downright inefficient geez loueez, Phillips must argue that layoffs reduce inflation how the EFFF is this true? sure, the unemployed wont be purchasing boats but they will continue to spend for shelter, food, clothes so many bottom indicators are flashing nowadays but the major indexes continue to descend I find it interesting that the Dow and S&P have been spared so much damage sure, the OldLine stocks were not lofty in price last year I mean Dow Dogs, Nifty Fifty Biggins they never traded at 100 PE's Dow doubled from 1995 to 2000 while NazComp doubled from Oct1999 to March2000 now the Naz is down to Oct98 levels with the upcoming recession, I expect Dow to find its way toward a 3/8 retracement since the expansion began in 1994 that would translate to a run from 4000 to 11000 (done) then a decline to 8000 the big question in my tiny twisted orb is how much more damage can tech stocks suffer? well, calculate book value for major techs then give them an extra 50% for pure vig it aint pretty, and NazComp 1650 looks still high to me if a recession is even hinted the entire essence of recession is: hold back on purchases until prices come down this applies to goods/ services/ securities (e.g. stock) / jim