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To: JoanP who wrote (83728)	3/21/2001 7:36:34 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<<Patron/Tippett - Thanks for the information. One more question: Is there is anything one can go long on?>> That's a tough one, Joan! If you've been on the sidelines a while (and have presumably missed the worst of the bear so far), I think I'd suggest continued patience. I realize that 4 1/2 percent in T-bills or treasury-only money markets isn't all that attractive, OTOH, the S&P is now down 15% on the year, so you're absolutely clobbering the benchmark! I think the only stocks that even have a chance in this environment are small caps, maybe some of the S&L's if things don't get too bad. Oil and gas royalty trusts. If you feel like you've gotta have something in and you don't want to short, try some BEARX or RYURX (Rydex Ursa). For the next week or so, Japanese stocks'll get ramped, you could buy EWJ, but sell if for sure no later than 03/31 before it turns into a pumpkin. If you buy any of these, only allocate a very small fraction of your portfolio (10-15% tops). Finally, Intermediate treasuries (10yr) probably still have some room to go if Mr. Bubble cuts another 100 BP's (which is a cinch, I think). A little piece in gold mining shares is speculative, but could pay off big if things really slide, particularly unhedged producers like HGMCY, HM, NEM, GOLD and DROOY (I own all of these). Doesn't hurt (much) to have 5% of your portfolio in these) The whole point of defensive investing is preservation of capital, that remains number one untill the bear is done. Therefore the cornerstone of any defensive portfolio is cash (although an AMZN short position is a close second<G>). When the bear is done, there will be spectacular buying ops, and that will be the payoff for waiting patiently...It helps to keep that point in mind while you watch all those bargains get better and better day after day. If you find you absolutely must have, say, a particular beaten down tech stock, start with a very small purchase (10-20% of what you expect to be a full position) and dollar cost average in over a 9 to 12 month period. You'll get hurt less that way. Regards Patron