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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (44353)	3/22/2001 7:33:37 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, I think folks were desperately looking for a reason to buy some tech and MU came to the rescue and provided the excuse. I suspect there are plenty on the sidelines intensely watching the market with a plan to jump back in at the exact bottom. If the techs begin to rally, they can jump in. If the rally fails, they can bail and wait a little longer. Frankly, I see very little to be positive about in Micron's comments. However, now that the tech ball is rolling, who knows when it will stop, or when it will turn back down. On the general economy: I'm not surprised housing and autos have held up fairly well recently. Interest rate cuts and incentives certainly have helped the situation. Now that the easy sales have been made, it may become difficult to maintain these buying levels in the current environment. AdvocateDevil

To: Ian@SI who wrote (44353)	3/22/2001 7:35:31 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, It is hard for me to take the MU party line too seriously, although dram inventories are obviously a sensitive barometer that bears scrutiny. Micron is the DeBeers of DRAM and has every incentive to play their cards very close to their chest. I have not known them to be straight shooters like AMAT. I'd rather go by the inventory to sales figures that show up on their quarterly balance sheets than by anecdotal evidence and spin. The negative wealth effect does not bode well for discretionary spending on silicon trinkets. Cars and homes are somewhat less postponable IMO than PDAs, digital cameras, and the like, and are not usually financed on credit to quite the same extent. I'm not too surprised that PC DRAM inventories are being depleted at today's low prices. I maxed out my PC last month with a memory upgrade from Crucial, MU's mail order subsidiary. It was the best $63 that I have spent this year. I could be blinded by my short bias, but until the economy picks up, I just don't see the chip equipment sector breaking out of its depressed range. Sam