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To: jambo-bwana who wrote (34995)	3/23/2001 9:06:42 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 35685

Morning Jambo, Yup. You're preaching to the choir my friend.

To: jambo-bwana who wrote (34995)	3/23/2001 9:53:58 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Ragarding bear market rallies... There are many choices for deep bear markets around the world, but in the American experience we only have two whoppers in modern history, time-wise that is -- the decline of the 1930's and the great sideways/down market of 1966-1982. Taking a look at the 1930's example to get an idea of the violence of rallies in the midst of an otherwise near straight decline from, say, a month/month perspective: • the decline began in September of 1929 and ended in July of 1932 -- 2 years and 10 months. • the Dow lost approximately 90% of its value • during the decline there were six rallies that retraced 35% to %45 percent from the previous top. (For the NASDAQ from here, that would be like retracing to approximately the 2300 level vis a vis the last noticeable top at the end of January -- a 28% return/increase from yesterday's low!) • the rallies were months long -- in sequence they were 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, and 2 months. • once the bottom was put in, we had a sharp 2 month rally that very nearly doubled the Dow! However, this was then followed by 6 months of decline that gave back over half the advance. • the high in 1929 was not surpassed until 1954 • if an investor had bought the dip on the way down and ended up with an average price representing the midpoint of the decline, then it was not until 1950 that this level was cleared for good. Of course, this bear may not be as bad as this previous worst bear market. One certainly hopes it is not. Statistically, it would seem to have very little chance. The only strong argument that it may be nearly as bad is the unprecedented excess preceding the decline. Cheers.