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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (3909)	3/23/2001 12:33:31 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>>We'll see if your 1750 NDX line contains<< I'm sorry. I should have been more precise. I meant 1754.65. <ggg> Not a very impressive rally so far, but Don, Heinz and Lee all have cycle turns here. Must be worth something. The troubling thing about the lack of deflation talk this time is (IMHO) I think it's much more of a risk this time than it was 2 1/2 years ago, when everyone was talking about it. I think the combination of the biggest drop in net worth in the 56 years that that data has been tracked and high personal debt makes it a real possibility. It's going to be tough to spend our way out of this mess. I'm personally worried about the housing market, because I'm in the process of doubling my mortgage -ng- and am not sure if it's more than a two-year move. I've heard two theories on that. The first is that all dominoes will fall eventually, which makes sense to me, and the second is that housing was weak a year ago (weak by whose standards?) and is actually a leading indicator, and is thus predicting a turnaround in the economy. Well, the stock market is a leading indicator by 6-9 months, so that's saying something too. I may be starting to sound like an old crank, but I really don't know why the Fed spends so much time looking at the previous month's economic data, and doesn't look more at the yield curve, which as we all know, has predicted a recession 86% of the time over the last 40 years when it has been fully inverted for at least two months. So that indicator flashed "hard landing" around October 1. What would happen if the Fed eased just a quarter of point whenever the yield curve met that criteria? The real problem with deflation, though, is that rate cuts may not help all that much. A tax cut or some other stimulus may be necessary. All of the above offered with a big "BWDIK."

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (3909)	8/24/2001 12:07:24 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Terry, >>ve been trying to generate some discussion on deflation, but no one has seemed to take much interest in that possibility. I am interested in the probability of deflation. At least one person, Sir John Templeton, has recommended to buy AAA non-callable debt. He is in the deflation camp. This guy has lived long enough to have a fair idea of what is coming in our future. Lately when the bond traded close to 6%, I found some TVA government agency debt for 6% and a FDIC insured CD for 6.25%. I only nibbled, since I can not see in the future but if the bond gets to 7% I will add to these positions. Joan