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Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cush who wrote (1580)	3/25/2001 1:14:37 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5144

Cush, not too much to add. I did a quick wave count (which I am waiting for AllansAlias to grade me on). Here's my chart: dshacket.homestead.com The important thing to know about waves is they come in 5's. We appear to be in a 3rd downwave coming off the Jan 31 high (where I've marked the completion of Wave 2). This 3rd wave does not appear to be done (we need to have 5 waves within this 3rd wave). However it is quite possible that this little rally which started Thursday is the (4), which means it could last a few days, or just be more of a consolidation before the final (5) down and the completion of Wave 3. This is all subjective and one could also argue that the Wave 3 we are in is done and we are beginning a Wave 4 rally now. BWTFDIK. One thing abou this chart, the only buy signals I am getting are the Stochastic (on a 8 period setting) and the bullish candlestick formation. If one were to go long here (which isn't THAT BAD and idea), a tight stop is in order.

To: Cush who wrote (1580)	3/25/2001 1:25:32 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5144

Hi Cush, That is one sick chart! YUCK stockcharts.com[w,a]dicayymy[dc][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] FWIW, I agree with your comments regarding the prolonged oversold condition of both the RSI & the Stochastics. I find that when I am in doubt of whether or not that the market (or stock) is trending or oscillating, I look to the ADX for final confirmation. As you can see on this chart, the ADX is in a very steep uptrend @ about 42 or so, note also the the -D1 also @ 42 & that the +D1 is @ 15 (approx.) So my interpretation of the ADX follows: Negative.... ADX indicates that a very strong trend is in play, in this case down, note that ADX can (although rarely), trend up to 60 (extreme reading), the -D1 indicates that the bears are in control, +D1 indicates that the Bulls are being swamped by the Bears. I would wait until the ADX turns down, & the +D1 crosses over the -D1, if I was looking for a break in the trend to go long in this market. In a strongly trending market... oscillating indicators are useless... the ADX helps me to determine whether or not to rely on RSI & Stochastics or Macd... In this case wait for the Macd buy signal...IMHO Regards, Peter