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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (42408)	3/26/2001 7:41:31 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

If recent articles in The Economist are right, the gloom may continue. For the past 3-4 years they talked about the U.S. "bubble", noting our increasingly negative savings rate and a host of other frightening statistical anomalies. In an article 2 weeks ago they gave a pretty believable explanation of how the "bubble" occurred: 1. Money was available to any start-up that had an idea. 2. The start-ups immediately went out and spent it on the best technology they could find. 3. Earnings at established high-tech companies (like SUNW and EMC) soared. 4. A "new economy" was proclaimed. 5. All investors in the NASDAQ felt themselves getting rich as share prices soared. All you needed to do was buy shares and you'd soon be rich! 6. Companies that had never made a profit had valuations higher than those of 80-year old giants of our economy. 7. Old Economy companies finally began to believe it was possible that they were indeed dinosaurs, and so they rapidly expanded their expenditures on technology. 8. The NASDAQ soared. 9. Extensive technology infrastructure was built even where there was no customer base. 10. No customer base meant no revenues. 11. No revenues meant falling share prices of start-ups. 12. Falling share prices of start-ups made venture capital dry up. 13. Drying up of venture capital meant substantially decreased corporate spending on technology. 14. Decreased spending on technology meant decreased revenue for established high-tech companies like SUNW and EMC and CISCO. 15. Decreased revenue for established high-tech companies resulted in horrific selling of their shares. 16. Established "Old Economy" companies realized they were still going to be around, after all, and so they reduced their expenditures on high technology... That's where we are today... Today the Economist recommends that Congress pass Bush's huge tax cut. Before the election the Economist thought the tax cut was too big... fuzzymath

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (42408)	3/26/2001 8:47:24 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Charlie, maybe we are starting to get close to the end of this mess ... maybe. In the last two weeks ending March 20, the 'commercials' have started to significantly reduce their record net-short position on the S&Ps. Their net-short position had been getting deeper and deeper from early April, 2000 (when they first entered this cycle) until two weeks ago. They are still net-short by a huge and record amount (my chart is from CTS Financial Publishing / TradeWorld2000), about equal to where they were in early November. If their net-short position continues to move quickly towards a neutral position (and gets close to neutral in the next weeks and months), I would expect that by the time it reaches neutral, the down move in the S&Ps will be complete for this cycle. However, between now and then, we will probably see a large, dramatic and climactic drop in the S&Ps. That is how I interpret it, and how I am playing it with four out-of-the-money S&P June 1050 puts on the S&Ps. Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions. Ken Wilson

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (42408)	3/27/2001 12:39:28 AM
From: paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Charles - I assure you the pain you feel is only temporary. SUNW (with most all other large cap tech) will either reverse or we'll all be dead soon anyway.

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (42408)	3/27/2001 8:35:01 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

<<Personally, I've had just about enough pain. I'm really bummed.>> Just remember, your not alone....my guess is anybody that hasnt been cash or short for quite awhile is feeling alot of pain....all you can do is assess the situation and go from there.....you either believe in sunw or you don't....no telling if she moves higher or lower short term, but long term, unless something major happens, sunw is a solid company and one most would be proud to own .....JMO Keith