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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SBerglowe who wrote (44797)	3/30/2001 10:47:43 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The ta on amat is pretty clear that the buy in price should be at the 200 week and the sell price at the 30 week. If you followed those rules, you would still be up 3 points. In fact, your initial buy would have been at 34 in Dec. I can relate to your distress on other stocks but not amat. I am not confident at all in a v shaped recovery, however, I think the chances of one occurring are increasing since NO ONE thinks it will happen.

To: SBerglowe who wrote (44797)	3/30/2001 11:09:34 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Susan, >I do not have any confidence that it will rebound anytime soon< Maybe you're not aware that AMAT is in an industry that is cyclic? Bookings at the moment are down from their heights and are expected to reach a floor in a few months. Then they will, if history is any guide, rise again. Stock price follows bookings more or less. You may want to look at historic bookings/shipments and book-to-bill charts. geocities.com Regular posters here are counting on this cyclic recovery and some are hoping for lower prices to buy. If you have any questions about the semi equipment cycle, please ask. There are many who will be glad to reply. I assume you don't NEED to sell any time soon. Of special interest to you will be the charts showing historic AMAT price vs SEMI organization bookings and book-to-bill. [We assume that Applied's bookings are proportional to bookings of the whole industry] Gottfried