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To: isopatch who wrote (89473)3/30/2001 2:09:44 PM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
isopatch,
Seems you and securitytrader will have to split the credit difference for the 110 or 112 levels. We also got a bounce as I thought we might, though it was delayed.

This is perhaps the most dangerous stage of the market, unless one rode it down from its heights, where the bulls get washed out on whipsaws and the bears get squeezed on the sharp bear market rally. Bargain hunters find quicksand instead of bottoms and cash holders have to be aware that missing the first train out of the station may be the price of the safe ride tickets.

Your market read is likely but, it will be a difficult one to play for most who will be subject to the above vicissitudes.

For myself, I find it most instructive to watch and bearing in remembrance Livermore's quote that the top and bottom eighth's are the most expensive in the market. While I like to play bottoms in individual stocks or sectors, this market's derriere is a Huge One and I am content to avoid being squashed under its massive butt as it shifts from one chair to the next. It seems a very disgusting possibility for those who play too bravely here.

I am also mindful that Livermore himself ended his life with a pistol in his mouth in France, hiding from his creditors, because he bet too heavily on what turned out to be a bear market rally during the Great Depression.
Same fellow who made 50 million shorting the market during the market crash of 29. One bet too many, ending an illustrious career in grinding poverty!

This is likewise a great market to be wary of making that one bet too far.

Best Regards,

Roebear