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Technology Stocks : Aahh...iNEXTV (AXC) The NEXT Thing! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DrD who wrote (3323)	3/31/2001 6:27:08 PM
From: Michael Olds	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4169

Dr. D/Jubimer; please take the following as constructive criticism (while I totally demolish your reasoning with glee -- sorry, just a joke) -- you asked for feedback! 1) Total potential viewers = 20,000,000 2) 40% of total viewers likely to watch streaming video 3) Of those, 33 1/3% are likely to watch inextv's streaming video Leave 1-3 as is (that gives us @2,500,000 viewers). 4) Each viewer is likely to watch 3 video segments/day I think 4 is going to prove to be way off the mark. I think the error begins with the statement "each viewer", and ends with "/day". I think the much more likely scenario is that some very small percentage of the 33% are likely to watch on any given day; and that they will likely watch less than one entire video clip each. I don't think the content justifies even the assumption that a small percentage are likely to watch on a regular basis one video per day -- the content is not changing that frequently and we are not talking about compelling programming here. If I had to come up with a figure for daily viewers I would go with 5% of potential viewers, or 125000/day. 5) Each viewer watches 5 days/week instead of 7 days/week Five is covered above. Where is there any content one will watch every day? People are not going around to these sites looking for the iNEXTV segments they have not yet seen. What you have with these partners is a huge audience made up of smaller audiences; we send a stream to the car-tinkerer's group, this in no way touches the entire audience of our partner; and then you need to consider how those who visit specialty sites are interested in the content and the forums. Most are likely to view the stream from iNEXTV once; only a small percentage of those are likely to return for more. 6) Each streaming video segment is 3 minutes in length 7) 90% of streams are Narrow Band, 10% are Broad Band 90% of users may be narrow band, but I suggest that narrow band users are not streaming video watchers. I would suggest that the split in terms of viewers is more likely to be 50/50 or even more off balance in favor of broadband users. At 50/50 that brings daily revenues to: NB: $3281; BB: $6093; Total: $9347 Give this the seven days a week treatment for weekly revenue of: $65000 Monthly: $260,000 Quarterly: $780,000 Annual: $3,120,000 Using your: 8) Rates are based on per thousand (000) streams 9) Rates: $35/(000) NB, and $65/(000)BB - WAG 10) Revenue Split: 75% iNEXTV (25% Branding Partners) Finally, this model does not seem to me to be reflecting the real situation, which is that iNEXTV is going to be paid not for segment viewers, but per streaming ad per segment viewer. My bet is that there will very quickly turn out to be certain types of content that prove to be attracting the ads, and that these will be as fickle as TV programming is at present. I also suggest that those placing ads will soon be screaming for ways to measure results (now click-throughs), which is a potential source of extreme danger given the clear lack of connection to the real world of our Management. Given good content, I would suggest two to three ads per viewable segment, or a potential triple of the amount in your model as I revised it, or @$9,000,000. Clearly if the way I see it is even close to the mark, something more must be done here. More potential viewers; blockbuster events; a content-savvy partner (say, AOL/TimeWarner); cost-sharing content production mo PS: I mentioned this before: I have a dozen stocks bookmarked here. Day after day AXC is the only one with a message on it. I can't see this lasting much longer this way. mo

To: DrD who wrote (3323)	3/31/2001 7:37:18 PM
From: Trenton A. Scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4169

Her Professor! I hope your revenue numbers are way off, but me thinks we're in troubled waters until either (1) iNEXTV can increase ad rates significantly and/or (2) they somehow reduce the cost to distribute content by a large factor. Using your numbers, my distribution cost model (which does not even include production costs, just bandwidth/distribution) returns these very ugly numbers: Content Distribution Cost (per GB): $15.00 (source: Ampex) Daily Distribution Load (seconds): 1,440,000,000 (8 million views * 3 minutes per view * 60) Daily Broadband Cost (10% of load): $337,500 Daily Narrowband Cost (90% of load): $1,063,125 Daily Total Content Distribution Cost: $1,400,625 Pretty dismal, her doctor! Using your revenue numbers, weekly revenues wouldn't even cover daily costs! Perhaps that's why Bramson pre-announced another year of losses in January! Given the $15/GB distribution cost figure from Ampex, and the 10% broadband, 90% narrowband breakdown, my model tells me that iNEXTV must obtain 17.5 cents of ad revenue PER STREAM just to break even! Perhaps this explains why iNEXTV is attempting to increase the quality of their content-- in order to justify higher ad rates. I can only hope that Akamai will lower their distribution prices in the future, because $15/GB simply makes it too hard to make a profit-- even when the benefits of ITG (BB streams at 160KB, not 300KB) are already in place! Using your revenue numbers, iNEXTV needs a much lower distribution rate ($2.45/GB) just to break even! This Internut streaming business is a very tough nut to crack!

To: DrD who wrote (3323)	4/1/2001 12:04:14 AM
From: Swamp Fox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4169

Here is my SWAMP (some wild ass math-matical presumption) <VBFG> DrD's spread sheet: 1) Total potential viewers = 20,000,000 (13.5 % view 1 iNEXTV stream a day) 2) 40% of total viewers likely to watch streaming video = 8,000,000 3) Of those, 33 1/3% are likely to watch inextv's streaming video = 2,700,000 4) Each viewer is likely to watch 3 video segments/day [ (make 1 segment a day) = 2,700,000 a day ] 5) Each viewer watches 5 days/week instead of 7 days/week (agreed, skip) 6) Each streaming video segment is 3 minutes in length (come back to when cost per gig is known) 7) 90% of streams are Narrow Band, 10% are Broad Band (agreed, skip) 8) Rates are based on per thousand (000) streams (agreed, skip) 9) Rates: $35/(000) NB, and $65/(000)BB - WAG (agreed, skip) SKIP =( 2, 700,000 views a day * 90% N.B. = 2,430,000 views a day). (2.7 * 10% B.B. = 270,000) N.B. $$ = ($ 35 * 2,430 mm = $ 85,050 a day) B.B. $$ = ($ 65 * 270 mm = $ 17,550 a day) weekly (17 + 85 ) * 5 days = 500. yearly ( $ 500 K * 52 weeks = 26 ) million in revenue. $ 26 million in revenue before revenue sharing 25 % and bandwidth expense (WAG 25%) = $13, 000, 000. $ 13,000,000. before EBIDA. ROI on 44 mm is 30% 1st yr. If Couch potatoes videos were placed on YAHOO! a million hits on it per day would not be un reasonable....as you know, YAHOO! is under going management changes... Or cutting a deal with Double Click to sell our streams...Good Business Content, Content, Content. We must build our inventory. Stay Tuned, Stay Long. The Mouse Stops Here! Swamp Fox Charlie P.S. Help my D.D. - Who are our competitors? Where are our competitors? What is their content?