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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (73857)	4/2/2001 2:37:12 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The move for the last six months has few characteristics of a bear market. It has all the features of a shake-out after a break out. In a bear market the market seems to be rising which keeps people bullish and looking up. The market rallies up to a down trend which has to be relatively flat to convince people there's nothing wrong. This is accomplished by the occurrence of superficial rallies which rebuild bullishness while a material monetary factor is pulling the reality down underneath surreptitiously. Almost without exception the material monetary factor pulling things down has been rising short rates. We don't have that and we have unparalleled money growth. There's an extremely strong correlation between money growth and stock prices. The reason why is obvious. What we have here is due to an effect of the information age. Everyone is on the same page and they are trained by price to act like monkeys. The game is to let the trading public sell and drive prices lower until they are bargain basement. The result is public withdrawal. This is the quintessential psychology associated with shake out. Psychology changes to dead set against ever buying again. Then the institutions try to take advantage of the bargain basement. The problem is they're on the same page too.