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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (44906)	4/2/2001 1:46:10 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Shoibal, I went to the SIA site to view their forecast. semichips.org After clicking on 'semiconductor forecast summary' [get 'site map' first] I got >The requested URL /news/pr06032898.htm was not found on this server.< But the MONTHLY global sales history [not 3 months ma] is still there since 1990. semichips.org Gottfried

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (44906)	4/2/2001 1:59:37 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Too many people went long and covered shorts here last week... THAT is why we are going lower. Also, Maybe some fear China will NOT buy $5B in CapX gear if they are at war with us... me, I think their chance to blow Japan out and stick a fork in them without firing a shot, but by buying CapX and destroying them in the market place with cheap labor is far too important to them vs. saving face over a pilot that bumped our spy plane. but.. I must admit that my stomach is woozy again from the elevator rides my stocks are taking... Kirk

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (44906)	4/2/2001 2:42:33 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Nah. I didn't mean to imply that. From what I've seen, Herb is pretty solid. I was referring to the analyses and timing (coincidental but I believe unintentional) rather than the people producing them. It seems that we go in 2-3 week sentiment cycles, which somewhat corresponds to editorial cycles as well. I think we're seeing an analysis crescendo based on data that we (threaders) have already been aware of and formed our own opinions about. Those analyses seem often to be circular: the price goes up inexplicably; an analyst hunts for data to confirm his (usually preformed) concept of why it shouldn't have. Then the opposite happens - the price goes down inexplicably, and the future positive case gets emphasized. It just seems to me that the process is reversed - conclusion first, data examination (and selection) second. Most of these can be summarized as we already know - short term bad, long term good. However, to stand out from their crowd, some analysts exaggerate: short term apocalyptic, long term utopian. Last week, I acted after feeling what seemed to be a firm shift to the optimistic. This morning, guess what - we're back to doom 'n gloom. In two weeks, we'll probably see another wave of "it's not so bad" articles - coincidentally, right around APR 01 options expiry and Tax Day. - Mitch