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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (2761)	4/3/2001 2:52:35 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Ed, I suggest you read the piece in the street.com about telecom debt. I forget his name but he correctly downgraded many techs 12 months ago based upon his debt analysis. He argues that 80% of the new telecom co's will probably go out of business. Many of them carry large amounts of debt. I'd argue that the telecom buildout was largely responsible for the absurd valuations of the networking, semi/chip and optical sectors. This buildout will not be repeated anytime soon. You can play a DCB, but this is not a fundamental buying op and this is VERY different than '98, '91 and '87. Thinking that we can bottom once and simply resume our course back to 3-4K again is nuts imho.

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (2761)	4/3/2001 2:52:35 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 23153

(Dup Message) - EOM

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (2761)	4/3/2001 2:52:35 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 23153

(Dup Message) - EOM

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (2761)	4/3/2001 4:56:50 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 23153

Ed, there is a reason nobody thinks long term about tech. That's because long term it is far from exciting, and likely downright depressing. Tech companies of old, i.e. RCA, Zenith, IBM, Xerox, Wang, etc. either end up going out of business or in the case of IBM trade sideways for half a century. One of these days people are going to figure out software isn't nearly as valuable as is currently thought, and the likes of Microsoft, Oracle, Novell, etc. will become boring sideways traders. Another day people will realize makers of high tech gear like Cisco, 3Com, Juniper, Dell, etc. are really just old economy stocks in new economy dress. They will eventually trade at multiples like Philips, Sony, Panasonic, Magnavox, etc. It was less than a decade ago that tech was in the toilet as an out of favor industry. After the wreck that's going on now wipes out many people's net worth then there is a great chance it will happen again. I'm not really as tech bearish as the above would indicate, but thought I'd play the devil's advocate as I see some of the techies on these boards being too far to the other extreme. A balanced viewpoint is more valuable than one governed by irrational expectations. As in all things the truth will lie somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Sharp

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (2761)	4/4/2001 12:32:53 AM
From: William JH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Ed, I recently started to look at the fundamentals of Infospace (INSP). My jaw dropped when I saw that this <$5 stock has 315mm shares outstanding. Have you considered the implications of the huge number of shares that NAZ companies have issued in this bubble? SUNW 3.26B, MSFT 5.34B, and Miss America herself, CSCO 7.28B, to name a few. How are blimps like these ever going to get airborne again? I wonder if there will be enough buyers to accommodate the investors who might want out of these stocks in any future rally?