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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (4880)	4/3/2001 10:49:38 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Well now that I've had so many nice compliments let me see if I can't really put my foot in my mouth tonight.<ggg> No really once again I would like to say thanks for the recognition. That and the fact that you know your work may offer a different perspective to someone out there, ultimately saving them money makes writing these posts all worth it. With the closeout of the 1st quarter trading the charts can be a rather precarious endeavor. Like any other piece of time you would expect the market to bounce back after an extreme move in prices in one direction. For example a strong weekly move in prices for stock xyz would almost always open your expectations for some sort of consolidation in the following week. This expectation would also be true of prices on a quarterly basis. Not necessarily a huge retracement but simply a normal backing and filling process. A quick look at the qtr range on the COMPX (last qtr) 2892-1794 would indicate the there was plenty of wiggle room for stocks to at least bounce hard here in the month of April. That of course is NOT what we're seeing. Over the weekend I sat and when through my charts writing down all the possibly short candidates on one side and the longs on the other (just in case we got that bounce). When I finished 90% of the stocks we're all on the short side. Most of the stocks that could have gone long were indeed trades in the shortest of timeframe. The fact that stocks are continuing to break down hard with the start of the second quarter should indicate to all of us that these are powerful forces sweeping through these markets. Forces that I believe are just now forcing WS to recognize. Just look at these numbers to put it all in perspective: ARBA 4.43; INKT 2.79; COVD 1.09; WSTL 2.43. What about the generals: LU 7.85; JDSU 14.06; AMZN 8.63; CSCO 13.75.... Man I could go on and on. Oh by the way those prices on the big guys do NOT represent the lows, they are going down even further yet. The sheer destruction in wealth is mind boggling. Support everywhere is just melting away. In one of my posts from the other day I mentioned that during the second quarter there would continue to be nowhere to hide. Even in the stocks that appeared to have bottomed already. Those would include the NOK, T, and chips of the world. We are witnessing the beginnings of their breakdown. Make no mistake about it if some positive catalyst does not appear real soon there is significant damage ahead for equity prices. Yes in some cases damage that will represent yet still another 50% haircut in value for some stocks. While pushing a lot of mediocre companies completely out of business. Let me repeat that the DOW has a possible downside target this month of 7900. While the compx sometime this quarter may touch 1000. Once again these are only projections. Of course the FED and its actions are always the wild card. Time will tell. These are history making times on WS.