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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Rose who wrote (135377)	4/4/2001 12:43:16 AM
From: CYBERKEN	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

The policy, stupid, is all about marginal tax rates. And if you think the stock market is a pendulum, you shouldn't invest. Go play commodities-or better still-shoot craps...

To: Kevin Rose who wrote (135377)	4/4/2001 12:51:31 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769670

Kevin, AG cut by 1.5% in the last 13 weeks, and I'm sure he will cut more -- until it's plain that he's pushing on a string or the dollar blows up. The problem is not that he tightened too fast (he tightened very gently) or that he failed to cut enough, but that he allowed a bubble to form in the first place. Remember that he controls not only the price of money but also the supply -- and he's been printing like no tomorrow. M3 (broad money supply) has risen by 50% in the last 5 years. This flood of credit flowed directly to financial assets and real estate; it funded the bubble. It's the job of a central banker to prevent bubbles, not enable them. Once it formed, it was inevitable that it would burst at some point. It could have burst during the LTCM crisis of 1998, but Uncle Al came through with three emergency rate cuts and 'saved the market'. Can we say "moral hazard"? Thus 'protected', speculation continued unabated. The Nasdaq highs made the 1929 speculation look like child's play. To say at this point, 'Save the market, cut interest rates', is like saying 'Avoid hangovers, stay drunk.' It's not a permanent solution.

To: Kevin Rose who wrote (135377)	4/4/2001 11:47:36 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

Kevin: "Gloomy? I hope it doesn't actually happen. But Bush and AG should be at the forefront, with a consistent policy to both calm the markets and establish that THEY are in control. Instead, the Bushers couldn't decide whether to admit that there is even a problem or not. They're too busy with how it would look, and how it would affect Dubya's precious tax plan (which would have an iota of impact on this problem for the next two crucial years)." To some extent I guess we are going to have to disagree. In September of 1999, I sold all my stocks and bought a few oil and gas stocks and some gold stocks. I did so, because I knew it was nuts for companies like CSCO to sell at 100x earnings and Corvus which has neve shown a profit to have a capitalization greater than GM as just a few of many examples. I have a cousin who lost 80% of his 401K. He worked for Lucent and had all of his 401K in Lucent stock. I think this is outrageous for a company to do that to its employees. It's one thing to grant stock options but quite another to have employees stock in one company. But that was an aside. The point is, not only are were the tech stocks overvalued but practically all stocks were. Eventually all booms go to busts and the sad reality my friend is that PE's are going to go a lot lower and will be based on lower earnings to boot. Unfortunately, AG, dubya and no one else is going to stop this. We are not even close to the bottom of this market. I suspect that AG is gone soon and will be replaced by an easy money guy or gal and the fed will really start pumping money into the economy to keep things going. They have been pumping since December and I mean big time. This will put us into a period of stagflation. No real economic growth and the rate of inflation exceeding economic growth. Eventually the excesses that have built up in the economy will be squeezed out and when every is preaching the end of the world, a new period of prosperity will begin. Kevin take some friendly advice - Stop looking for some one to blame it will not help you. Understand what is happening and take the necessary steps to protect yourself. Times are going to get bad and Lord do I hope I am wrong. I will happily sell my gold stocks and buy something else when it is clear that I am. Little joe