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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (19955)	4/4/2001 6:28:11 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 60323

To all, I was wondering how the longer term followers of SNDK feel about things here. There are all kinds of risk, but I think some are minimal for SNDK. For example, it has been stated that SNDK is already trading at a historically cheap level (e.g. Barrons article, Jubak article on 2/23, that fund manager Robert Loest on CNBC Market Week (also speaks highly of SNDK on his website, and says his fund is buying shares - IPS Millenium Fund), and a Money Mag article a while back recommending SNDK). With small caps, buyout risk can be a concern, but insiders own 50%, so that risk should be very small, if I have that right. There is risk due to not being able to take the proper action during severe bear markets like this one, but with more than 1/3 of the market value in cash, I think SNDK management has this one covered. There is risk of alternate competing products, like Dataplay, but I am not so worried about that now, after reading some good posts by Tw (am I wrong?). There is risk from similar products from competitors, which SNDK definitely has, but if it is true that they are coming out with new faster flash products, that should help out. Everyone seems to agree that the market will grow pretty well once the downturn is over, unless there is just way too much production capability coming on line. Also the latest reports are the consumer spending is just fine. I also read a good article saying the reverse wealth effect would not affect the consumer much because most of this wealth happened so recently, because unemployment won't get that bad, and because most of the losses are in long-term 401K accounts which are not really tied to spending. There is risk that they will be targeted in a price war by a bigger company with more resources, like INTC, but I think this risk is not real high, but please correct me if I am wrong. So, is everyone just hoping it goes lower so they can buy more shares of this great company on the cheap, or is everyone shaking in their boots thinking it could go down a lot lower from here? I guess I am wondering if I am worrying about the right things, and why the stock has been hammered down so far (hope it is a least partly a "baby with the bathwater" type thing, plus the slowdown in sales near term). Maybe part of of is just the flight to what is perceived as quality - big-cap stocks, but with SNDK so able to whether the storm (cash plus 50% insider owned), I am hoping such fear is unwarranted. Also, how about the competition from companies like LEXR? They seem to have fast flash, but that stock may be close to being de-listed (i.e. if it stays below 1 for 30 days or so), and I wonder if SNDK will end up buying a company like this during this horrible downturn. I think the China risk is not a big worry now, I think things will work out ok, and if they don't there will be even bigger things to worry about. I guess I sort of trust that Bush will eventually handle this thing and China relations ok, perhaps his Dad will provide some good advice. At any rate it is probably factored into the stock price here, and maybe SNDK could make adjustments if needed, such as using a different third party subcontractor (Ref. recent 10K report). Longer term, I am one who believes the demographic argument (i.e. Harry Dent) is basically valid, and think stocks will not be held down like what happened in Japan (lots of other reasons why the Japan analogy should not apply). Thanks for reading this long post. Please help me understand any risks or views that I might be missing out on. I think there is a real good chance that this stock comes flying back at some point, unless I am missing something here. It has happened before with SNDK, was like the space shuttle going into orbit. I am hoping we will look back with regret at not having "sold the farm" to load up on it here. But I do not want to rely on hope, I want to try to understand all the risks up front. Thanks in advance for any comments, and best wishes to all. John

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (19955)	4/4/2001 9:16:16 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Art & All- SNDK Downside, I did not realize how low things got before, back there in Oct. of 98. I wonder if you or anybody else has any reasons why SNDK won't go to cash value this time. I don't know of any other techs that went that low in 98, although I am sure others did, but if there is something peculiar about SNDK or stocks in this business such that there is a good chance of going back to cash value, then I want to understand this. Back then I think it hit a low of about 3 or so, using current split adjustment. Since then, however, revenues have gone way up. What is the consensus estimate of the downside on this thread to SNDK? Has this been discussed before? Per that Barrons article, that guy suggested the downside was the mid teens, we are about there already. In fact, the article suggested that $20 was a very good deal. I realize the downside is theoretically zero, as with all stocks, but for most techs there is a P/S value, for example, that tend to represent trough valuation. Any comments are appreciated. I am new to this area of technology, and to the realm of stocks that have gone to cash value. John