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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (34954)	4/5/2001 9:57:21 AM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"If 45 million parts are sold in Q3, and AMD/VIA sells 10 million parts that leaves 35 million for Intel. 2% is 700K parts. 7% (for Q4) would be 2.5 million. (I expect marginally higher total sales in Q4 with the increase going to AMD and VIA)" You seem to be overlooking Northwood, which will also be a 0.13-micron part. "By Q4 AMD is scheduled to be sampling its advanced 9 layer SOI .13 process. By the end of Q1 of 2002, AMD will have a greater percentage of its capacity as .13 than Intel will." I doubt if SOI will sample in Q4 '01, probably Q1 '02, at least from Fab30. AMD's best hope of sampling SOI in Q4 '01 would be a 0.13-micron shrink of the mobile Palomino fabbed by IBM. However, the 0.13-micron bulk(isotopically pure?) silicon process will be, either as a shrink of the mobile Palomino, or a true mobile Thoroughbred. My guess is that a bulk silicon 0.13-micron shrink of the mobile Palomino will sample in Q4 '01 (marketing wise this would be analogous to the mobile Spitfire AMD introduced earlier this year), followed by an SOI implementation of the mobile Thoroughbred in Q1 '02, and perhaps an isotopically pure silicon variant of Clawhammer. This would be followed by the bulk silicon (possibly isotopically pure) desktop Thoroughbred, and the SOI variant of Clawhammer. I am not sure that a higher percentage of AMD's production would be 0.13-micron by the end of Q1 '02. But this would definitely be the case by mid Q2 '02.