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To: H James Morris who wrote (123139)	4/6/2001 2:29:53 PM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Do you think the Lord Emperor himself saw this? "For example, I'd say that Ariba is now a fundamental sell, and I will be selling it out of Jubak's Picks with this column. It's not a fundamental sell because of its recent earnings warning for the just-completed March quarter, although that's serious enough. I do sit up and listen when a company reduces its revenue projections for a quarter to $90 million from $180 million. But if that were all that were going on at Ariba, I'd be analyzing the stock to see if at $4.88 cents a share, the fundamental bad news was in the price. But I think that's an irrelevant exercise at this point because Ariba's most recent announcement also indicated that its entire business model is broken. The company had told analysts and investors that its road plan was to expand from its niche in business-to-business procurement to become a total solutions provider for electronic commerce. The deal to acquire Agile Software (AGIL:Nasdaq - news), a maker of software that allows the integration of product design with manufacturing, was the first important step in that direction. But the collapse in Ariba's share price has killed that deal, and with it, the entire strategy that Ariba laid out in the past year to compete with companies such as i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq - news) and Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news). The issue for Ariba right now isn't whether it can sell more software next quarter, but whether the company has a viable business model at all. "