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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (3698)	4/6/2001 5:59:57 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John: As you've commented many cross currents. My take is the FED should cut next week (tuesday) BUT they will not unless there is some triggering event & while todays job numbers should be it I'm not sure AG feels the same way. 1) Consumer sentiment moved up in FEB. Remember my comment of this being taken after the Jan rally. Imagine what it will be next month and the month after. 2) Jobs. Just wait for the next few months. The banks have just started and they remember 1989 to 1991 well. They are quite nervous. Jobless claims lag the announcements and there are many more announcments to come unless business feel there is a light @ the end of the tunnel. 3) AG doesn't want to fuel the markets BUT if he eases again he knows it will start a rally. Something he doens't want but he also doens't want the markets to crater any more. darned if I know what will happen.

To: John Pitera who wrote (3698)	4/6/2001 6:12:02 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John... why I think the Fed will cut next week is that we're seeing a lot of the pundits shutting the hell up and not creating the environment where it appears AG is responding to the stock market and not the economy. He might have cut earlier if we all hadn't been so vocal (and I'm just as guilty as any one else of this kind of rhetoric). That's what I was thinking of yesterday when we rallied so hard. It was more than this jobs report, but a sense that the bears had taken it too far and AG was just looking for an undeniable excuse to cut between FOMC meetings. So maybe we have put in a bottom and are ready for a decent rally. Regards, Ron