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To: BigBull who wrote (91345)	4/7/2001 10:35:51 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>The Reagan/Rostenkowsky tax deal then also hurt commercial real estate mightiliy and contributed to the bust.<< Every doctor and dentist I knew got stung by that - they were all passive investors in commercial real estate so they could use the depreciation writeoff to offset their income. No more tax shelter, no more doctors or dentists investing in commercial property. That was 1986. The shakeout started in 1987. My office landlord, who was doing commercial real estate transactions at the time, said that the fed delayed cutting rates until the banks were about to go under. He says we almost lost the banks. The fed did not cut rates until after the October stock market crash. And who was the Fed chairman then? Alan Greenspan.

To: BigBull who wrote (91345)	4/7/2001 10:59:57 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Excellent post, by the way.

To: BigBull who wrote (91345)	4/7/2001 3:34:00 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Bull, beautiful post. I've nominated it as a cool post of the day... Anyone who lived in Houston from '88-'93 or thereabouts has an indelible picture of "fruited plains" of for sale signs on lawns, neighborhood after neighborhood....and a little later, of neighborhoods half-filled with vacant houses. It can happen again...

To: BigBull who wrote (91345)	4/7/2001 4:49:56 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

California is now faced with a triple whammy: 1. General recession. 2. Energy crises. 3. Massive tech bust, of one of the most spectacular mania's of all time. And the real nasty thing about 1, 2, and 3 is - they are happening all at once. Not spread out over a 6 - 10 year period. Very nice analysis. I am trying to understand the PG&E BK. Best I can tell, the BK judge has huge powers, and a DUTY, to make PG&E cash-flow neutral asap. That's a basic requirement for financial "reorganization". Since that would require roughly tripling electricity bills, I am wondering if us in NorCal are about to get an economic shock which will make a $300/person Bush instant tax cut look like chicken feed. I am also wondering about latest predictions that 5 million customers may be blacked out for most of the day on every hot day this summer. Allowing for essential-service exemptions, that means most regular homes and businesses, including high-tech, would have 2-hour outages about 3-4 days/week in hot weeks. Including the inevitable wearing-down of morale that such 3rd-world conditions would bring, I can see the economic impact being severe. Do any lawyers or such here know exactly what are the powers of the PG&E BK judge regarding rates?

To: BigBull who wrote (91345)	4/8/2001 9:18:04 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

BB- The Reagan/Rostenkowsky tax deal then also hurt commercial real estate mightiliy and contributed to the bust. In some cities there were big partnerships holding massive amounts of urban residential real estate in their portfolios. These porfoliios of property were truly yummy as they also had gnerous historic rehab tax credits attached to them. Then came TRA 86 (Reagan, certainly, Rostenkowsky?) The new passive activity loss limitations and scaled-down historic rehab credits made these investments unattractive. It wrecked what progress many older (historic) urban neighborhoods had made at revitilization. Add to the mix of no/declining investment a (then) new drug, crack cocaine, and it was a recipe for disaster.