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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (24449)	4/8/2001 1:36:32 AM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio "we are going into a recession that rate cuts will alone will fix." I'd agree with you Sergio, except for one thing, well several really. The current stock market has little or no understanding of a true recession. 4.6 percent unemployment rate with a 2.0 or greater GDP is hardly a recession. Interest rates are quite low compared to the 18 to 21 percent house payments were paying back in the early 80's. Un employment at that time was near 9 and 10% with GDP down to just over 1%. All of this was going on while per hour pay was DROPPING, not going up as the #'s on Fri. indicated. Gold was near 800 bucks an ounce and silver was at 7 to 8 bucks. Now, all of that sounds like inflation does it not? They (the market and the media) were yelling recession. Recessions follow periods of inflation, when did that happen???? I must have missed it. Expectations for growth have been too high for some time, as have valuations of stocks based on those expectations. Those expectations were foisted on the investing public by the analysts...it all became a snowball rolling uphill. Now the snowball has rolled downhill and we begin...a bit too late to yell recession. Tech. is still the wave of the future. NG, Paper, lumber etc. are all safe (perhaps) for now, but wealth is not made from investing in companies that have the same biz year in and year out, unless they pay a VERY healthy div. NG prices could very well go bust with the opening of one field in AK yielding un told amounts of reserves. GW wants to go there and I think he will. Ken