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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (5323)	4/8/2001 10:52:48 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

More CFZ extracts ( I am just acting as the filter since they post a few hundred posts an hour. Good stuff hidden in there though)..... From: BigBull Friday, Apr 6, 2001 7:48 PM Respond to of 91459 GM debt downgraded by Moody's: biz.yahoo.com Moody's said GM faces ``near-term'' challenges in addressing ``the continuing erosion in its domestic market share position, intensifying competition from German and Japanese manufacturers in the U.S. truck and SUV (sport-utility vehicle) markets, and the severe weakness in its international operations.'' To the extent GM cannot effectively address these concerns, Moody's said, its ``operating performance, cash generation, and debt protection measures would be lower than we originally anticipated during any slowdown in the U.S. automotive industry.'' ================================================== From: patron_anejo_por_favor Friday, Apr 6, 2001 7:50 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 91462 Here's an interesting little ditty (released after the bell today, natch) on the DELL "miracle" that moved the Dow 400 points yesterday: 4:36am 04/06/01 Dell: Margin risk may be ahead, analyst (DELL, CPQ, GTW, AAPL) By Emily Church Dell's management "made it clear" that the PC maker is prepared for further price actions to gain market share and keep sales momentum, said JP Morgan H&Q analyst Walter Winnitzki in a note to client Friday. Dell hosted analysts Thursday. The PC maker's stock ran up $3 after it reaffirmed its first-quarter growth goals ahead of the meeting. "We are more concerned about what happens in the second quarter and in the second half of the year," Winnitzki said. "Sales in Dell's second quarter could likely be more impacted, reflecting a full quarter where competitors have been able to respond to Dell's pricing. Coupled with mixed reports about the health of European demand and indications that the enterprise market is slowing, we are still cautious on industry demand." Sales growth and margins could be at risk, he concludes. ================================================ From: ild Saturday, Apr 7, 2001 12:07 PM Respond to of 91469 Failure of VC investments could spell trouble for start-ups BY MATT MARSHALL Mercury News www0.mercurycenter.com Intel now says that it realized no VC gains for the most recent quarter, compared to $2.6 billion in operating income from its other operations =================================================== From: Les Horowitz Saturday, Apr 7, 2001 3:43 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 91473 Statisticians testify "hard to measure anything to do with inflation..." biz.yahoo.com $ 3 dollar gasoline in nightmare scenario cbs.marketwatch.com telecom debt cbs.marketwatch.com =========================================== From: JuliusM Saturday, Apr 7, 2001 4:24 PM Respond to of 91473 Other random excellent reasons to short-and-hold the oh-so-resilient Dow right now: 1) the chart of the NON-tech part of the SP500: (the teaser is non-subscription and shows the chart) grantsinvestor.com It tripled from 94-98 while the GDP went up only about 40%. And IT HASN'T EVEN STARTED TO SERIOUSLY DROP YET. 2) the R-word indicator economist.com 3) long-term data on stock mutual fund money flows: (see 4/3/01 commentary if the link doesn't work) comstockfunds.com Make sure you open the link to the PDF document!!!! Once the outflows start, they typically continue for YEARS. ==================================================== From: BigBull Saturday, Apr 7, 2001 7:00 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 91476 Biggest PG&E creditor: finance.yahoo.com Pacific Gas & Electric's preliminary bankruptcy filing lists its top creditor as Bank of New York Co. which was owed $2.2 billion as of September. The utility had run up an $8.9 billion deficit buying electricity as of Feb. 28. A month later, it had $2.6 billion in cash and outstanding bills of $4.4 billion. public.wsj.com ================================================= From: JuliusM Saturday, Apr 7, 2001 7:16 PM Respond to of 91476 I just lose my top evertime someone says stocks are so undervalued, based on treasuries model's>> Me too. Everybody here should read Chap. 24 of Smithers and Wright's book, "Valuing Wall Street". They totally rip apart treasury-based stock market valuation models. Salient points: 1) Over the 128 years from 1871-1997, the correlation between treasury yields and stock earnings yields is 0.08, which is as near as dammit to saying "no correlation whatever" 2) The models appeared to work during the 1982-2000 bull market largely by coincidence. 3) During the previous secular bull, 1950-1968, the relationship was exactly the reverse. Bond yields rose steadily from 2% to 12% over this time, while stock earnings yields fell steadily from 8.5% to 6%. (see Fig 24.2)