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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (35511)	4/8/2001 6:12:04 PM
From: BirdDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Please don't think that I'm some great technical analyst. I basically hang around here to try to sniff the mood of the market and the way the wind might be blowing. But since you bring it up. May I point out some down to earth obvious, logical, facts about the "Lassie" chart? This is only to try to help. Not to argue about who is right. One) A certain amount of increased trading should be taking place in the nasdaq due to it being a very different market than it once was. At one time it wasn't much of a market. Now it has some of the biggest companies there are. It also has the most companies with a great future in new technology. All this makes volume naturally much greater. So I see that I need to pay more attention to change in that chart in the rather near term more than anything. Trying to compare volume of 2000 to volume of 1980 is simply irrelevant. Two) Trying to look at change, near term is relevant. What I mean by near term is a couple years? That sound fair to you? If you look at that; 73 to 74 looks just like right now. Also, other points on the graph, like 78,80,87,90 all have a Lassie bark. Each of them was a downturn that reversed. Three) Would we agree that in most instances, the greatest one day gains are due to short's covering themselves? This kinda puts a hole in the theory that one day gains can predict anything....except maybe...That the shorts aren't confident of their position. Four) From a very naive position. Go back an look at that nasdaq chart. Doesn't it appear as though the bull market started in 74, and not 82? Just by looking at the chart. Looks like a pretty consistent rise to me? If one were to accept this. They would also have to accept that we are due for a reversal of this downturn. Lassie sure is barking about something. Please.....I don't know nothing. I just thought you might like a different perspective from someone who has no preconceived ideas. BirdDog