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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (123305)	4/10/2001 10:49:49 AM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

Well I can't argue with the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. Its been trending up for years. The rest of world so far still seems comfortable with their U.S. investments. An interesting study would be to take a look at the International Balance of Trade Deficits over time as a percentage of GDP to be able to compare whether they are truly at high levels historically. I would think that foreign holders of dollars or dollar denominated investments--i think they would mostly be dollar denominated debt securities--wouldn't get nervous until their investments reached some critical percentage of GDP. Clearly a slowing GDP would make that percentage higher and at some point things would start to crack...but where exactly is that point? Do we have any references in other countries as to where exactly the currency has a tendency to crack? Where do people start to see their borrower as a credit risk on its own merits and not just political instability?