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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crystal ball who wrote (123342)	4/10/2001 6:53:05 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Crystal, I have addressed the oil/energy issue with Amazon a few years ago. Oil was $10 a barrely at that time. I concluded then that the Amazon business model is not efficient. That changes not regardless of the price of oil. Amazon's problems are their business model structure. That along with no experienced retailers on their mangement teams. I do not believe experiect retailers could have saved Amazon either but they at least would not have made the ghastly errors Beozos has made. You are seeing now and will more so in the future success of bricks and clicks. The only exception is with a service item that requires no fulillment in physical terms. I follow this for self interest only now. It is a hobby. The Amazon story is over. It is not a work in progress that no one knows how it will turn out. In 1997 and early 1998 there weere still some uncertainties in my mind that I was correct on the FA of Amazon. I was absolutely positive I was correct on the FA of Amazon by Q3 of 1998. Here is the ending. Amazon will file chapter by Q4 2001 or at the very latest Q1 2002. The shareholders will receive nothing. The insiders will ahve walked away with billions. The firm will be changed to be a perveyor of media products such as book, music and video with the use of two DCs in the US and one DC in each major country in which they have the market. Amazon will never emerge from Chapter 11 as an ongoing concern. There will finally be a Chapter 7 and a buyout for about $300 million. The leases on the other DCs will have been terminated during the bankruptcy. The database and front end will stay in tact. Amazon will likely be the best at selling downloadable media such as music, books and video. I honestly am not guessing at this. All that is left up to chance is which of the above two quarters is the end and what firm will pick up the pieces.