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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (35308)	4/10/2001 12:00:10 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: some possible mobile palomino delays? The bizarre thing is that we get this flood of 1.33GHZ thunderbirds (which appeared very unlikely) at the same time as we get nada in the way of palaminos. Was AMD sitting on the 1.2 and 1.33 parts until the slower parts sold through? Or did it take this long for them to make whatever changes let the tbirds run so much faster now? Judging from all the overclocking reports (up to 1.6 GHZ with a good heatsink and fan) they are able to release a 1.4 if they think it makes sense from a marketing standpoint. I hope palamino is doing OK, and the dearth of news is an effort to avoid "osborning" existing Athlon sales. The spectre of Intel "crushing" AMD always comes to mind. Is this likely? I don't think so. Intel appears to have given up on the PIII as anything but an entry level processor. The bad news for AMD from that is that it may be that Intel was holding back on P4's clock speed to avoid making PIII look inadequate - and that's no longer a concern for them, since Athlon is doing that now. As a WAG, Intel has capacity for about 60 million PIII (or Celeron) chips per quarter or 12 million P4s. If they limit themselves to 22 million PIIIs and 8 million specialty (server and notebook) chips, they can make 6 million P4s. If they price P4 to sell 6 million of them, they'll probably have a P4 ASP of no more than $200. The specialty chips probably also have an ASP of around $200 (notebook chips have been coming down). AMD will have to settle for no more than $130 for Athlons (higher performing or not) and $60 for GHZ and near GHZ Durons. Intel will have to settle for no more than $100 for desktop PIII/Celeron. If AMD sells 4 million Athlons and 5 million Durons, they'll have an ASP of $91. AMD is going to be making a lot less from flash for awhile, but ASPs of $90+ on rising sales would be a bonanza for them. The estimates above would have Intel at an ASP of $104 (compared to their Q4 $180+). This would represent a revenue drop of about $2.2 Billion for Intel for the IAG, on top of their trading losses and the ongoing losses from their dot.bomb efforts. The existence of AMD's Dresden plant combined with the size of P4 is forcing Intel to replace $10 Billion worth of plant way ahead of schedule - and it's coming out of that cash cushion that would have made it possible for them to wage a price war without feeling any serious pain. An accurate accounting from Intel would reflect greatly increased depreciation of their plant. Whatever numbers they may report, Intel is going to be coming out of 2001 with a real loss of $5 to $10 Billion for the year. I don't think Intel is going to be looking for a scorched earth price war this year, I don't think they can badly damage AMD even if they do. Dan PS - If AMD ever ships mobile or sever parts, things get a little bit better for AMD and much worse for Intel. AMD will get a little more for a server or notebook chip than it is getting now, while Intel will have to slash prices to avoid losing too large a share of these key markets.

To: AK2004 who wrote (35308)	4/10/2001 7:41:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

albert: "some possible mobile palomino delays? Did I miss something?" Guess he's worried that no mobile ponies have yet to surface, as AMD management has now been shipping them for 1/2 month according to most recent guidance...His worrisome demeanour falls into good company on this thread it seems, especially in phases of general market weakness...Perhaps the release of AMD's Q1 results will underscore just how unfounded such exaggerated concerns have become...might even have a pony or two surface by then!!!