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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (123386)	4/10/2001 11:57:18 AM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

You of course have wiretaps proving that there is a big Government conspiracy with regards to these numbers. The nominal GDP is calculated from the demand side and the supply side and then compared for statistical discrepancy. The product side total is the offical GDP measure. The real GDP is calculaed from nominal GDP in constant dollars. There are 3 different GDP indexes with different ways to weight adjustments for price changes. There are no estimates of sampling error for the GDP figures. The statistical discrepancy indicates the extent to which unknown errors in the data bases, in which some are above and others below the "correct" values, do not cancel each other. However, because some of these errors are offsetting, the statistical discrepancy is a net figure of the consistency of the data bases rather than a gross measure of all errors regardless of whether the high and low figures are offsetting. the product side of GDP is regarded as the official measure, although the availability of the product and income sides allows the calculation of alternative growth rates that provide a lower and upper range for use in analysis by comparing movements of the product side against the product side minus the statisitical discrepancy. One way of viewing the accuracy of the GDP figures is to treat it as a being within the growth rate range indicated by the product and income sides movements. Another perspective of GDP accuracy is provided by considering the size of the revisions to provisional GDP figures. These are shown in terms of the confidence that the percentage grwoth rates in GDP and prices are likely to be revised upward or downward within a specified range based on past experience. For example the growth rate of the estimate of the constant dollar GDP that is published in the third month after the quarter to which it refers is revised in the succeeding annual revisions each July as follows: in two of three cases in a range of -1.9 to +1.9 percentage points and in 9 of 10 cases in a range of -2.8 to+3.0 percentage points.