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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (123482)	4/11/2001 11:24:28 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

that's not true. they are comparable where it counts. both were basically the result of a too loose monetary policy during a period of disinflation. if you look at Japanese economic data at the end of '89 when their stock market bubble peaked, they were almost identical to US economic data when the stock market peaked in '00. even the general sentiment picture was similar: in the late '80's, Japan's economy was the envy of the world. the main differences are not particularly comforting actually: Japan had a big current account surplus, whereas the current account of the US is in a chronic, and still growing, deficit. and Japan had, and still has, a large positive savings rate, whereas the US savings rate has gone negative. on the positive side, the US real estate bubble didn't grow quite as big as Japan's, and the demographics are somewhat more favorable too. note btw, that Japan's larger economic cycle is traditionally leading the US cycle by about 10 years. for instance, early last century, Japan's market peak was reached in 1919, and the US market peaked in '29. one thing i am pretty certain about is that the US economy will re-emerge from the slump quicker than Japan's...the Japanese authorities have proven particularly inept at dealing with the bust.

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (123482)	4/11/2001 11:58:14 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 164684

>>The obvious and other differences make them incomparable.<< victor, that depends on what you are comparing. the japanese bubble was another data point in history that indicated the nasdaq bubble was going to go pop-eroo. the japanese bubble was another data point that indicated excesses can be awful fun while they last, but they never last forever. the japanese bubble was another data point that showed "this time isn't different" and "markets don't go up forever." the japanese bubble was another data point that showed govt can't control the ultimate destiny of the markets. the japanese bubble was another data point that indicated faking numbers did not lead to long term prosperity. ALL of these lessons were lost in our collective insanity - after all the japanese bubble was not "comparable" to our bubble. -ng-