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To: MetalTrader who wrote (89914)	4/11/2001 3:31:40 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

metal... "a trough" in semi's ? I guess as long as the fundamentals keep collapsing - you could technically say we are "approaching" a trough (VBG). But, the problem with that mindset; is that when the NAZ broke 4000 from it's 5100 high; you could also have said it was approaching a "trough" back then - since it was moving in the right direction (VBG) & that's the problem I have with those who think they see one here. I think the risk here is thinking that you are seeing ANYTHING ! If the companies themselves and analysts can't see ANYTHING - how can you see a trough ? How close we are to a trough - is what the debate is all about & imho; given there is ZERO - NADA fundamental evidence of a turn and more importantly; that there is also ZERO-NADA visibility - one is wishfully thinking they see "anything" into the black abyss of NO VISIBILITY; let alone seeing a "trough"... I really wouldn't quibble with anyone who nibbled on say PMCS at $30, at $20 and then was waiting at $10 etc... the point being that those that waited for initial entries at $30 are far & few between - most allready owned the stock at $150 to $200, or chased the bottom in Dec , or bought into the rally in Jan to $100 & got whipsawed cutting margin-levered losses on the downside by trying to average into and catch bottoms continually in the NAZ since last fall. The other factor is that most tech investors never "nibbled" - they were often margined, or FULLY if not merely over-weighted in Tech for months & months. PMCS was a posterchild stock; look at these charts & tell me how ANYONE who owned tech as a buy & hold, or averaged into tech, or tried to call a bottom so far in tech; has done: finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=1y Hell; the SOX up 12% today; is STILL down 3% for the month & 55% for the year... I can't understand - given the carnage that tech investors have suffered through allready; why tech investors won't wait untill there is a tangible positive turn in fundamentals before making any significant weighting in tech ? Now I can appreciate someone trying to call an interim trading bottom for a flip trade & using tight stops in case the move doesn't break in the right direction; but that's not what most "Chihuahua's" have been doing... they've been doubling down & levering up and doing so since last Sept & nearly 2000 NAZ points ago. It's rather obvious that many got shaken out on many of the downlegs only to jump on the breakout moves at higher prices; only to get whipsawed as every rally for the last 6 months has been very short lived & has resulted in a violent whipsaw reversal and a continuation of the Bear. The rather obvious truth that isn't being spoken openly about on these threads is that many, if not most tech investors were margined & began calling, averaging into & chasing bottoms about 1000 to 1500 NAZ points ago & imho; about 75% are now obviously working with 25-50% of capital they were earlier; given their leverage to 1900 NAZ points down & only 300 up in the last 6 mos ! ... so its really a moot point & is completely immaterial about "THEM" discussing anything related to a bottom, or buying here... "their" discussion in actuality should be about recouping "some" of their losses - which is hardly the cause-celeb' we are seeing over under the porch (VBG). Sadly; it will take a very high percentage of tech investor/traders perhaps "years" (plural) as Dan Nile alluded to; before many tech and/or semi's return to prior levels. The only discussion that is cause for optimism, yet alone celebration - is for those not yet long tech; on whether this was, or what will/would be a good entry/re-entry opp and even if this rally is another shorting opp; or will soon be again... And concerning Golds: ... hell metal; the months of Sept to Nov were the cheapest 90 day window in gold stock HISTORY - that's cold, hard fact. So it's more than a bit amusing to have a "lifelong" metaltrader quibble about whether some of "us" newbie gold/silver stock investor/traders caught the exact 90 day window bottom of the last 15 years or not. So far we did...and excuse me for viewing any of your continual nattering nabob of negativity commentary on gold stocks as anything other than sour grapes & obviously so (VBG)... you continue to toe dip & we're happy allready having weighted positions & being able to sell rallies, rotate to laggards & do a little trading. And unlike Tech; the Gold stocks are still holding 20,30,40% off their lows and are NOT continually setting new low, after new low - even with bullion not doing well. Now; might that be a sign of a trough ? Unlike the US dollar; the CB's can't print, or sell gold endlessly.... there come's a time that they run out & each loan they make to bail out the bullion banks & the gold carry trade just winds that coiled spring short/derivative position ever tighter... and yes; the Aussie & Canadaian dollars are beaten down & King Dollar reigns - that's why "some" of us bought from XAU 48 to 41 into what so far - "remains the saviest & cheapest entry window" in Gold stock history....as King Dollar has reached a point that it is creating more stress fractures in other globlal currencies & economies; not to mention its hugely negative impact on US corporate earnings. We now have Kudlow, Steve Forbes et al - calling for Gold's rise to $340ish as an economic barometer reading that the Fed has reached correct liquidity levels in this economy. Now give me alltime, or 15 year lows in the Semi's & then I'd acknowledge a possibility of a trough; before seeing fundamentals turn. There's a helluva lot of difference in calling a bottom at $10 Oil which is unsustainable and alltime lows in OSX stocks, or in 15 year lows in Gold & Silver stocks at prices where few producers are profitable as well; than there is in Tech Stocks at PE's of 100+ and still exhorbitant - bubble level valuations; if not at the least still hisotrically rich market multiples... into the abyss of no visibility and collapsing fundamentals. Let's see ... if the DOW closes down 200ish points - under 10,000's resistance level & if the NAZ closes red.... and both begin another retreat. Is/was this rally really ANY different than all the prior DCB/counter-trend rallies that were ALL soon followed with lower-lows ? Will the concept of glady giving up a few hundred points in return for waiting for an actual turn in the fundamentals, or at least some real visibility ever gain favor with tech traders ? ... will it if we return to NAZ 1600 ? ... will it if we break NAZ 1500 ? ... 1400 ? 1300 ? What's wrong with waiting for something, anything positive to actually be able to hang your hat on vs. "it's soooooo bad; it can't possibly get any worse than this" !?!?!?! ... because so far for stocks like PMCS et al; it can and it has and it may continue to ... "get worse than this" ~ and at PE's of 70 to 100 right & left; they are far, far, far from cheap on any sane historic metric imo. From where I sit; the NAZ is just as likely to see 1287 - or, 600 points down; as it is 2487; or 600 points up & actually; from a value perspective 1887 hardly seems compellingly cheap on a fundamental basis and technically - I see nothing more than a countrend rally within a still sustained Bear trend. Now give me NAZ 1250 & DOW 7950 and we can talk - "trough"...untill then - it's poor risk vs reward speculation & is NOT "trough-value" investing... not in my world anyway (VBG).