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To: bill meehan who wrote (93227)	4/11/2001 9:59:05 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

ho ho i feel quite comfortable lookiing for a breakdown from here wiht every bear having recently turned bull and the bulls still... well, bullish.... you don't get a bottom with CNBC running a "bottom" special... LOL.... i guess you'll get bearish again when we take out lows, eh? HO HO HO....

To: bill meehan who wrote (93227)	4/11/2001 11:04:58 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Hi Bill... Aren't you worried that the lingering effects from the debt bubble and the mal-investment bubble will last for quite some time? (and effect stock prices for quite a while)? (On the mal-investment side)...hardly any firms have gone out of biz yet.......we've hardly seen any mergers, bankruptcies.....the rationalization process is just beginning...that capacity is still out there (waiting to be used), and inventory (waitin' to be dumped)...surplus goods everywhere....I would think, until things get rationalized....that means lower profits and steeper competition across the board for the foreseeable future in many tech industries. And as you know, many of tech highflyers live off of "premium" prices on their "unique" products....What's gonna happen to Csco's margin's this quarter and beyond? What's gonna happen to Juniper's margins with a wounded Csco out there dumpin' like mad? On the debt side......as the song goes....we've only just begun...the American consumer is in a horrendous debt position (as you know)....we still have to go thru a phase in which negative savings become positive....that's not going to get solved within a few months (more like years)...which will take the bite out of consumer spending for some time to come...Also, since profits are way down, no one can expect a fat bonus to spend this year... We've only just begun the layoffs (hell, hardly anyone on Wall Street is gone yet! gg)....as they kick in, and the consumers pay down debt...consumer sentiment is going to get even worse...and consumer sales are going to slow considerably, no? Can we keep the economy afloat with mortgage refinancing alone? The energy thing is going to put California in a recession this summer...the actors' strike is no small deal either.. California's is the world 8th or 9th (I forget) largest economy ? Isn't that going to effect everyone? Japan is in meltdown mode, and nothing seems to be working. If it weren't for market manipulation, some (many?) of their banks would have been in technical default end of last month....How are they going to save the Nikkei next March if it is under 10,000....that would be some pump! If Japan plunges even further into economic crises...what happens if the U.S. isn't there to soak up the goods? The U.S. problems this year will probably throw much of Asia into recession...who are they going to sell their goods to? If they go into recession, can that be good for us? And the potential for a currency meltdown exists in Argentina, Turkey, etc....That should take care of much of the growth in Latin America.... So, unless Europe is going to grow like we did in the late 90's (and they show, to date, no inclination to pump like AG)....how do we save the world here from a real nasty, fairly long slow-growth period? And what does this mean for stock prices? I'm usually for buying when the news is the worst...but although we are hearing bad news.... these problems are so massive, and the solutions are not quick-fix (typcial inventory correction, small recession) stuff...but rather long-term structural issues.....I would think the market REALLY "bottoms" when we REALLY turn the corner (regarding progress) on these important long-term issues....and not just when we get sick of the warnings of the bad news... Now, it seems like since some analysts can't see the bottom, and only hear a constant stream of bad news.....they have become like John Joseph "it can't get any worse, so it must have to get better"...Is that what you are saying Bill? Would appreciate any thoughts you have....I enjoy your commentaries...

To: bill meehan who wrote (93227)	4/12/2001 1:07:57 AM
From: sammaster	Respond to of 436258

threads thoughts on the following sectors and picks... energy...as evidenced by california crisis there is a shortage of ways to get finished gas/oil to the right places and shortage of electric companies to provide energy..which companies will benefit from buildout and delivery? defense..with clinton led castration of the military we now need modernization..tensions with countries all over globe rising as economies go south...which companies will benefit most from military buildout.. basic materials/infrastructure....with imminent recession the government will use its "surplus" to rebuild americas neglected infrastructure... which companies will do and provide the machinery for the buildout and which basic materials will be needed.. these 3 sectors are the way to actually go long in this recession(gettin tired of just buying puts <g>)..and im sure most of these companies have already run up in anticipation of this...