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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mph who wrote (7718)	4/12/2001 12:13:57 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15481

Where are we in the market cycle? That is a question that I have been pondering. And I am not talking little cycles, I am talking big 21 speed tandem cycles...oh wait, that isn't what I am talking about at all....nevermind. Early last year when we were powering up to 5000 on the naz, we had the bulls rubbing "eau du irrational exuberance" all over their bodies and many bears capitulated. But the bear capitulation wasn't that complete. Even here on SI, you can find examples of bears buying puts on every rally up to 5000. Just like you can find bulls buying every dip all the way down to current levels. The fact is, the stalwart bulls still haven't capitulated. I haven't. I still believe that this is a necessary correction before we could move on to new highs. It may take a while to reach those new highs, but I believe that we are at a place where you can buy stocks at reasonable levels....but, I have been seriously wrong for the past 9 months. I do think that we still have more fallout to see in the tech industry. I believe that you will see IT buyers being much more prudent in their purchasing decisions. One of the things that they will be looking at is the long term viability of their vendors. This means that the spending will be more concentrated in the strong companies, which will in turn, intensify the downward pressure on the weaker companies. Those who are lucky will be snatched up by one of the stronger companies, while others will close their doors. Another thing that will happen is that the stronger companies will continue hiring through the tough times and cherry pick the best employees from the companies that are having difficulties. Again, consolidation into the strongest companies. And I see Asia continuing to build out their tech infrastructure, and then Latin America, Europe is having a tough time right now, but I believe that they are closer to a bottom in their cycle, so we should see growth their too. And in 5-10 years, we have Africa to bring into the new millenium. In China, there are 85 million users of mobile phones, but there are something like 1.2B people there. What about India??? The growth potential is huge and it will take 20 years to have true global reach. So again, if people like me haven't capitulated then, this can't be a true bottom of a bear market. But if people like the denizens of the CFZ thread never capitulated, then last March/April could not have been the top of the bull market. Just a few points to ponder.