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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hitsoft17 who wrote (3262)	4/12/2001 1:56:06 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

hitsoft, I agree on the time frame comparison of oil vs. tech. Oil demand was actually declining at the time, and tech is still growing. In addition, we will continue to have new products that may not be as effected. My point is that we have only had a little over one quarter in the tech correction, and I believe there will be a lot more pain that has not surfaced yet. Maybe it's only 12-24 months. The auctions of excess equipment are just beginning from the defunct .coms, the amount of vendor debt to the less credit worth customers has not yet even surfaced as an issue. Wait until the CSCO and MOT's of the world start writing off their bad vendor debt which is in the billions. The biggest problem is the excess capacity that resulted from unprecedented growth resulting from Y2K, the .coms and the telecom spending binge. Inventory may get used up faster, but it will take years of real growth to fill the gap of excess capacity. A lot of the techs have no debt and can afford to lower margins drastically to maintain market share. As a result many smaller less capitalized companies may not survive. A lot of these tech companies are going to have both negative growth and losses to come. We are also going to see a lot more bankruptcies in companies like LU. I hope the Naz goes to 2100-2300, because I still have a lot to sell and it will result in a great shorting opportunity. Jim