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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wowzer who wrote (3264)	4/12/2001 1:54:20 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Is it time to crow, yet? Don't look now, folks, but after a pre session that had Naz futures down 30 points or so, the Naz is up 55 points to 1954, the Eisenhower era, up almost 3% for the day and, more importantly, looking to rise for the 4th day in a row, for the first time since January, I think. I believe the way to look at technology, from a macro point of view, for the next 8 weeks or so is not so much earnings reports and the economy, although those two items and extraneous events (which, see, China) will continue to have impact, but more on the basis of market fundamentals. What is a market, from the smelly chicken alleys in Wanchai to the dog markets selling the ingredient for p'oshintang on the outskirts of Seoul? A place where buyers and sellers come together and "discover" price. What will the next 8 weeks or more show for technology? I think you'll see more buyers than sellers, a reversal of the last 12 months. The retail owners of technology have either sold or bitten the bullet and held. If they still own, they are hoping to get out at higher prices (funny, when higher prices arrive the holders will always raise the bar; human nature). The institutional owners have already sold and are poised to reenter. The short sellers are nervously eyeing their positions and the tax sellers won't be back until the fall carnage hits. We sit, at this moment, on a 20 percent retracing from last-last week's lows, and wonder what to do. What catalyst will propel individual stocks? Really bad news or a rumor will still tank a stock (LU anyone?), but run of the mill bad news will elicit a yawn. Good news will just exacerbate the shorts' worries and bring in the buy side players. Look for Naz to finish 1930-1970 today, not a bad range, and have the long Easter weekend to discuss where on the upside this will peter out. This is a slow climb and many of the wounded will be inclined to sell quickly, but Orson Welles comes to mind: "We will sell no wine before its time." I think the correct time to start selling is 2250~2300, but that's just a bunch of free advice with my personal money back guaran-damn-tee attached. Kb