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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9687)	4/12/2001 10:45:15 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Does anybody know if BTB figures reported by SEMI will be affected by the new accounting method all the semi equips are using? Previously, they all recognized revenue when they shipped. Now they recognize it when the product is accepted by the customer. In yesterday's LRCX cc, Bagley said that this introduces a further 4-7 month lag between order and revenue recognition, and will cause their company's BTB to be different from what it would otherwise be. In particular, the greater lag between order and revenue will allow bookings to go up while revenue goes down, or vice versa, to a much greater extent that before.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9687)	4/12/2001 10:51:10 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Jacob, Isn't INTC the exception that proves the rule? Building $2B-$3B fabs which can take more than 2 years if new processes are involved with equipment from suppliers like SVGI that take the better part of a year to custom build a tool to the buyer's specs. Especially now with the huge and often leading edge foundry capacity available to all chipmakers. The manufacturing revolution based upon increased real time information applies just as much to the technology sectors as to any other. IMO.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9687)	4/13/2001 6:51:26 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Intel knows, in near real-time, what end-demand for their products is. Does that make their decision-making quicker or better? Are you saying it doesn't? Have you ever tried to forecast end-user demand through multiple levels of distribution? Pre-JIT and realtime MRP, Intel might not know end-user demand decreased due to delays and inventory buffers in the distribution system. Somehow this discussion went from my point that the recovery could be as fast as the decline (if this is an inventory problem and not a long term decline in demand) to saying realtime end-user demand information is useless for decision making. In fact, Intel could also believe the recovery may be as rapid as the decline and is choosing to leave their capex plans in place for that reason. If demand is increasing again, as some recent reports about DRAM have indicated, Intel already knows this. If Intel does not believe there has been a long-term fundamental change in demand for their products, they are using this as an opportunity to gain strategic advantage by keeping their plans in place. They could be wrong but I would not bet on it.