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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigShoulders who wrote (13694)	4/12/2001 11:35:20 PM
From: Chris J. Horne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Good work BS...The only questionable area I see is the transaction dates you chose. I reacted immediately and I believe I was among the first to get my newsletter. My trades were 5 to 6 days after the dates you have recorded. I would have used 1/11/2000 and 10/17/2000.

To: BigShoulders who wrote (13694)	4/12/2001 11:45:14 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

Wow, great work! Results as of 4/12/01 based on a start date of 1/5/00 Port 1 -26.5% Port 1A -18.9% Port 1B -3.5% NASDAQ Comp - 49.4% S&P 500 - 15.6% I wondered how he could claim a low beta for P1 when it had about 6% in AOL at one time in 1999... Now I see why... It did have a higher beta than the market, hence the better performance in 1999 that was not met with less of a decline in 2000/2001 as some were claiming. I remember Ole Pete getting on my case for having too much risk after I did 117% in 1999 but I "only" lost 10.5% in 2000 and am up 8.2% YTD for 2001 and stayed at 80:20 the whole time. Vindicated twice in one day! LOL Thanks Kirk out

To: BigShoulders who wrote (13694)	4/13/2001 2:33:31 AM
From: geode00	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Wow, he made a bear market in his own portfolio....

To: BigShoulders who wrote (13694)	4/13/2001 1:19:11 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 42834

Big Shoulders - RE: (" Port 1B -3.5% ") Your analysis vividly reflects the success of Bob's long-term timing move thus far and the utter failure of his short-term trading strategy. An even better long-term strategy would have been to take profits in high risk equity funds and hold lower risk quality managed value funds for the 40-35% equity portion of Portfolio I. P

To: BigShoulders who wrote (13694)	4/14/2001 12:20:31 PM
From: BigShoulders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I added Brinker's portfolio 2. Also made minor corrections to results of portfolio 1 based on comments from my auditor <g> Re: All this conjecture about how good or bad Brinker's recent calls have made me curious too. I ran 3 variations for each of Brinker's portfolios 1 & 2 for comparison Brinker describes Portfolio 1, as...aggressive growth....investors seeking max returns ... high risk and volatility.... and Portfolio 2 as for investors with long term growth objectives...seek to enhance value of capital...assume reasonable level of diversified market risk... Portfolio 1 - 100% in stocks. This portfolio assumes all the stocks in Brinker's portfolio 1 prior to January 2000 were held until today. All dividends reinvested. Portfolio 1A - Brinker's new portfolio 1 from January 2000 newsletter after raising cash reserves now 40% stock, 60 cash; raised 5% additional cash 8/2/00 now 35% stock and 65% cash; then on 10/12/00, half of cash put into QQQ's for "Counter Trend Rally 2" (maximum of 30% to 50% range recommended by Brinker for aggressive investors). Dividends reinvested. Cash in Vanguard Prime Reserve MMF. Portfolio 1B - same as 1A except no investment in QQQ for CTR2 Portfolio 2 was evaluated in a similar manner as portfolio 1 except that for 2A, 30% of available cash was put into QQQ's (Brinker had recommended 30-50% for aggressive investors and 20-30% for conservative investors) Results as of 4/12/01 based on a start date of 1/5/00 Port 1 -26.5% Port 1A -18.6% Port 1B -3.5% Port 2 -20.8% Port 2A -12.3% Port 2B -2.7% NASDAQ Comp -49.4% S&P 500 -15.6% I haven't run Brinker's portfolio 3 (balanced portfolio). But I guesstimate the results Port 3 Probably about break even? Port 3A + 3% Port 3B + 6% Would be interesting to see how this has done.