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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (93782)	4/13/2001 5:54:08 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Patron: Re: "Time will tell, but I find the rationale that Joseph used ("things are so bad they can't possibly get any worse") curiously short on "analysis" and long on wishful thinking." Maybe both Joseph and Niles are right. Joesph is right in that things can't get much worse and Niles is right that they won't get better anytime soon. The result may be the slow bleed scenario with upticks of hope. Immelt of GE was on the tube yesterday. His short cycle businesses show no signs of pick up and he sees business in these segments as not improving at all for the remainder of the year. One of these short cycle businesses is plastics --- the stuff used to make computers. No upturn seen there at all now and sees it the same way for the rest of the year. These are the same indicators were used by Welch in October to predict the economic slowdown we are currently experiencing.