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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (9695)	4/13/2001 4:14:20 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re: The original issue had to do with why this cycle is so much faster than previous cycles. I guess I disagree with your premise. It's been a steep decline off the top, but that does not mean the time between peak and trough in bookings is going to be shorter. Is that what you mean, by "faster"? In other declines, it's taken about 12 months, and there is good reason to think this cycle could be longer than average. After all, in 1998 and 1996, we didn't have the possibility of a recession in the U.S. Also, capex in 2000 was at record levels, and that spending is boosting capacity now and into 2002. We are still on the first part of the "V", and have no idea where or when the inflection point happens. We need to wait till we've seen a couple of consecutive months of increasing bookings (this summer? mid-2002?), before we decide how fast this downturn happened.