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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Monahan who wrote (2002)	4/13/2001 10:22:05 PM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24758

Yes, some of China has come a long way, but not all of it. The question is germane: who in China was/is going to win some advantage out of the incident? Who is going to lose? The place isn't very democratic so the question is far more important than who in the US wins an advantage from it. Their army is a serious political and economic player. This in itself is a Bad Thing because militaries have a poor record when it comes to running countries. Furthermore the question can be pared down in even more finely: Who in their military gains advantage from the incident? Pragmatists or the mini-emperors? Long term, Northeast Asia, and China Sea are a real can of worms. Japan is heading for demographic catastrophe. Is Russia going to get its act together and administer its Siberian territory properly? Will China try and steal the oil which is probably off Vietnam's shore? What will be the outcome of official and unofficial Chinese destabilization efforts to the south? The US is on record as being protective of democracies and this is a problem for the mostly anti-democratic people who run China. Taiwan, every year is becoming more democratic and that is its threat to Chinese leaders, not some supposed military threat. If China could snuff out Taiwan's democracy tomorrow, the Chinese leadership, most of it, would happily make it happen in an instant. And that is the core of the US-Chinese conflict in the area. As time goes on China will have stronger influence in the Western Pacific and the US, in comparaison, less. The more alike the two countries are when this happens the less conflict there will be. This doesn't suggest we isolate the place, even if we could. It does suggest that political and military intelligence gathering should be intense. It does suggest that Western and particularly US intentions should be very made very clear to Chinese leadership. It does suggest action should support the more democratically inclined leaders in China. It does suggest they be given help developing commercial law (but probably not by the US - too litigious a society). It definitely suggests that we expose as many as possible of their up and comers to our society. The greater and more varied the contacts, the better for both sides. And it suggests N Americans get dead serious about studying Mandarin. frankw