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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (94003)	4/14/2001 2:48:12 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Justa...I agree, but you're being a bit too rational here.<G> Most of the recent strength in the SOXX has been generated by MuFu's and hedge fundies running other people's money. In other words, yeah, they're discounting a "v" shaped recovery. They're not quite as picky about valuations as you or I (or Hickey or Fleckenstein for that matter). Since the biz is cyclical, it's easy to run it up on rumor and innuendo that the bottom is in (as we've seen innumerable times in the case of Micron, fondly known as "Piece of Sh*t" on this thread for just that reason). The rumor that DRAM was on consignment this week was perhaps the most outrageous example of pure BS used to run a stock that I've seen in over 20 years of investing, nonetheless, it served the purposes of its handlers well. I see it playing out as follows: a move to 620 on the SOXX on Monday and Tuesday. INTC comes out after the close Tuesday announcing an earnings miss, reduced forward guidance AND a cut in capex. We get an immediate retracement in the Soxx, with moves lower as the really abysmal guidance the favorite semi stocks provides damps the "bottom is in enthusiasm". Then a wide trading range between 475 and 600 or so for the next 2 months. Next quarters warnings should knock the floor out and get things going, as that is clearly incompatible with the "things can't get worse" scenario...and by then the blackouts and higher gasoline prices should be beating rest of the economy. I agree, no reason to buy untill these stocks at LEAST reach '96 trough levels on price/sales (I think they'll overshoot on the underside, but I might start to buy at those levels). Eventually the "normal" SOXX/IXIC relationship will be reestablished. Regards Patron